By eFXdata — Nov 05 - 04:30 PM
Synopsis:
TD advises investors to brace for post-election market shifts, with a Trump victory or red wave expected to strengthen the USD, while a blue wave could lead to significant USD depreciation. A Harris win would likely trigger a USD correction, but not a lasting downtrend, as economic fundamentals continue to play a key role.
Key Points:
- Bullish USD Scenarios: A Trump win or red wave is expected to bolster the USD, positioning the election’s outcome as politically impactful on market dynamics.
- Blue Wave Implications: A blue wave scenario would likely weaken the USD substantially.
- Harris Victory Impact: A Harris victory would see a sharp but potentially short-lived USD correction as fundamentals continue to guide the currency.
- Election Timing and Uncertainty: TD warns that Tuesday’s election may not immediately deliver a clear winner, adding a layer of short-term uncertainty for the USD.
Conclusion:
TD highlights a USD-supportive outcome under Trump or red wave, while a blue wave would exert downward pressure on the USD. A Harris win lies in the middle, triggering a USD correction without a deep downtrend, with extended uncertainty likely in the election’s immediate aftermath.
Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary