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Oct 25 - 06:55 PM

ING: Anticipating a Dovish Stance from the ECB, Potential Pressure on EUR/USD

By eFXdata  —  Oct 25 - 03:00 PM

As the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares for its upcoming meeting, recent economic indicators from the eurozone have prompted speculation about the potential direction of the ECB's policy. ING predicts a dovish tilt from the ECB in response to these developments, which could exert downward pressure on EUR/USD, possibly driving the pair towards the 1.0530 level.

Recent Economic Signals:

  1. Deteriorating PMIs:

    • The eurozone has witnessed a decline in both manufacturing and service PMIs, signaling weakened economic momentum. These developments raise concerns about the eurozone potentially entering a technical recession, especially if the downtrend continues.
  2. ECB Bank Lending Survey Insights:

    • The survey revealed tighter credit standards in the third quarter, with expectations for further tightening in the fourth quarter. These conditions reflect the real economic impact of higher interest rates, with dampened demand for borrowing also observed.
    • The manifestation of the ECB's tightening in these real economic terms underscores its effectiveness and suggests that additional hikes could be counterproductive at this stage, given the fragility of the economic recovery.

Market Expectations and EUR/USD Outlook:

  • The converging signals from deteriorating PMIs and the more restrictive lending environment bolster the case for the ECB to adopt a more cautious, if not dovish, stance in its forthcoming meeting.

  • In terms of market reactions, these anticipations could halt the recent corrective momentum seen in EUR/USD. The pair might face downward pressure leading up to the ECB announcement, with potential to approach the 1.0530 mark, according to ING's projections.

  • This viewpoint hinges on the assumption that the ECB will interpret the current economic softness as warranting a pause in policy tightening or a more dovish outlook, at least in the near term. Such a stance would aim to prevent exacerbating the current slowdown and provide the economy with more leeway to regain stability.

Conclusion: Traders and investors are likely to closely monitor the ECB's language and any policy hints during the upcoming meeting. The central bank's interpretation of recent economic indicators and subsequent policy communications could significantly sway market sentiment and impact EUR/USD dynamics in the short term.

HSBC Research/Market Commentary


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