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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
Dec 10 - 12:12 AM
AUD/USD - Moves Higher Led By NZD/USD Rally
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 09 - 09:50 PM
  • AUD/USD trades as high as 0.6838 and is up 0.20% at 0.6835

  • Move higher led by NZD/USD on talk of Tokyo demand for NZD/JPY

  • AUD/NZD trading with heavy tone just above support around 1.0400/10

  • AUD/USD didn't react earlier to RBA Lowe's upbeat comments nS9N27S01E

  • Nor was there any reaction to the China inflation data nS9N27S01E

  • Rally in Dalian iron ore (+2.65%) may help underpin AUD/USD

  • AUD/USD resistance at 61.8 of 0.6929/0.6754 move at 0.6862

  • Support at 0.6805/15 where the 10, 21, 55 & 100-day MAs converge









aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Dec 09 - 11:00 PM
AUD/USD - No Reaction To China Inflation Data
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 09 - 08:45 PM
  • Chine PPI and CPI came in close to expectations nAZN000F13nAZN000F16

  • No reaction in the AUD/USD, which is meandering between 0.6820/30

  • Asia extremely quiet today, as market sits tight ahead of FOMC

  • AUD/USD support at 0.6805/15 where the 10, 21, 55 & 100-day MAs convrge






aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Dec 09 - 08:36 PM
EUR/USD - Hemmed In By Option Strikes Ahead Of Key Events
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 09 - 06:15 PM
  • Large option strikes and maturities limiting the price action in EUR/USD

  • Range trading expected to continue ahead of FOMC and other key events nL4N28I0N9

  • Support @ 10-day MA @ 1.1055 - more @ 1.1046 where 21 & 100-day MAs converge

  • Sentiment remains bearish with sellers looking for a fresh catalyst

  • Resistance and sellers camped around 1.1100






eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Dec 09 - 05:00 PM
USD, EUR: Not Expecting Any Changes From This Week's Fed & ECB Meetings - ANZ
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 09 - 12:40 PM

ANZ Research discusses its expectations for this week's FOMC and DEC December policy meetings. 

"We expect no change to FOMC policy or rhetoric. Chair Powell is likely to reiterate that the economy remains stable despite elevated uncertainties, while suggesting that policy rates are now at an appropriate level. Furthermore, we expect him to emphasise the need for a material change in the outlook to warrant any further easing," ANZ projects, 

"The ECB meets but, with signs of growth stabilisation and a coming review of policy strategy, it is unlikely we will see any change in policy at present. We expect new forecasts for growth and inflation," ANZ adds. 

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
Dec 09 - 03:48 PM
USD/JPY - Holds Last Week's Low Ahead Of Key Event Risks
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 09 - 01:25 PM
  • Last week's USD/JPY 108.43 low retested before a modest bounce

  • USD/JPY yet to close below 23.6% of Sep-Dec rise, 55DMA at 108.48

  • Huge NFP beats Friday finally gets some notice amid events risks

  • Massive $2.3bln of 109 expiries Tuesday a likely a delta-hedging draw

  • A sub-108.23 - cloud top & Nov. 14 pullback low - close ends uptrend

  • Three weekly sell signals on Friday put the onus on bulls nL1N28J0J9

  • GBP/JPY will fall nL1N28J0RD if UK vote, trade war news disappoint

Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Dec 09 - 02:36 PM
GBP/USD - Rises On Tory Poll Lead, Has Trouble Clearing Key Fib By 1.3168
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 09 - 01:20 PM
  • GBP/USD ends NY 1.3150, +0.11%; NorAm range 1.3176-1.3136

  • Pair drifts higher on upbeat Tory elex vibe, exp'd orderly Brexit Jan 31

  • UK Tory election hope propels GBP/USD to 7-mos high abv key Fib nL1N28J0IN

  • USD soft on back of China exp miss, Dec 15 tariff uncertainty nL4N28I11X

  • EUR/GBP adds to gains +0.12% at 0.8410, Mon range 0.8426-0.8394 nL1N28J0RL

GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Dec 09 - 01:24 PM
EUR/USD: Could Drift Lower If FOMC Affirms Wait-And-See Stance On Wed - Danske
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 09 - 11:40 AM

Danske Research discusses its expectations around this week's FOMC meeting. 

Following three cuts in a row, we expect the Fed to remain on hold (target range 1.50-1.75%) when it meets this week. We do not expect major changes to the statement.

Focus is likely to be on the updated ‘dots’ (i.e. policy rate projection). The Fed cutting once more than the median projected at the last dot update in September will automatically lower the ‘dots’ this year. The big uncertainty is what the Fed will signal for next year. We expect most members to signal that they expect the Fed funds target rate to remain unchanged in 2020 but we are looking to see whether one to two FOMC members signal an easing bias (however, this is not our base case)," Danske projects. 

"The Fed funds market is pricing the Fed keeping rates on hold in December and with a high probability in January too (based on the effective Fed funds at 1.55%). Hence, this week’s Fed meeting might not end up being a significant market mover on the day. That said, the market is still pricing some probability of another 25bp rate cut in H1 next year. If the Fed affirms its wait-and-see stance, we could see USD rates go a bit higher, which should send EUR/USD lower. We forecast EUR/USD will go to 1.09 in 1-month," Danske adds. 

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary
Dec 09 - 12:12 PM
GBP/USD - COMMENT-UK Tory Election Hope Propels GBP/USD To 7-Month High Above Key Fib
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 09 - 10:00 AM

GBP/USD remains bid, trading near recent 7-month highs by 1.3150, though off overnight and early NY peaks by 1.3175-80 nL1N28J06J, extending its rally with the help of polls indicating PM Johnson Conservatives will win.
The latest polls show a 14 percentage point Tory nL1N28J05Q, suggesting a Tory majority would deliver the UK withdrawal from the EU by the current Jan.
31 deadline.
That is soothing fears of economic uncertainty related to a disorderly Brexit.
Technically, continued GBP/USD strength seems in order with the pound's rise above the key 50% Fib of April 2018's 1.4377 high and 1.1959, September 2019's low at 1.1959 by 1.3168.
Adding to bullish GBP sentiment is the further reduction of GBP/USD spec shorts.
In the recently closed IMM reporting period nL1N28G1DR, Nov.
27 to Dec.
3, GBP/USD long positioning grew from 38.6k to 47.8k outstripping GBP short-covering, which has been the catalyst for recent GBP/USD gains. Despite that, shorts actually rose from 75.2k to 77.8k.
A close above the 50% Fib at 1.3168, and further GBP long position gains, would open the way for further GBP/USD gains with 1.3190, the May 2019 high, a mere speed bump on the way to 1.3380, March's 2019 high.


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Dec 09 - 11:00 AM
G10: EUR/JPY Shorts & AUD/NZD Longs Still Attractive; Looking To Reload USD/CAD Shorts - SocGen
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 09 - 09:30 AM
Societe Generale Research discusses its latest views on a selection of G10 pairs. 
 
"The weekend saw more softness in Chinese exports, down 1.1% y/y dollar terms, and up 1.3%y/y in yuan. The currency hasn't reacted, reflecting the importance of US/Chinese trade talks, which come to a head as the timeline for the imposition of the next and final round of import tariffs approaches," SocGen notes. 
 
"It's hard to see EUR/USD rallying much against the Eurozone data backdrop but sentiment is awful, and that protects the downside. A move higher in USD/CNH or a failure of the Conservatives to win the now expected majority in Parliament are the most likely catalyst for a fresh break on the downside.
 
EUR/JPY shorts still work, as do NOK/SEK longs, AUD/NZD longs, and this is a perfectly good spot to reload USD/CAD shorts after contrasting labour market data gave the pair a lift," SocGen adds. 
Source:
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
Dec 09 - 09:48 AM
GBP/USD: Could Trade Close To 1.35 By End Of The Week; Looking To Sell There - MUFG
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 09 - 08:24 AM

MUFG Research discusses GBP/USD outlook around this week's UK election. 

"Thursday 12th December at 10pm London time we will get the exit poll results of the general election and we believe the market is now very well positioned for a Conservative Party majority that is substantial enough to “Get Brexit Done” by 31st January 2020. The opinion polls have been remarkably stable in showing a consistent gap in favour of the Tories of no less than 10ppts. Spread betting markets suggest this might translate into a 30-seat majority.

We see that as sizeable enough to propel the pound further on Thursday night into Friday. We have long argued GBP/USD settling into a 1.3000-1.3500 trading range on the Withdrawal Agreement being passed. So by the end of the week we may well see GBP/USD at the top of the range – a temporary breach is feasible but is unlikely to be sustained," MUFG notes. 

"Why? Well we would argue on a few metrics GBP/USD is looking stretched...GBP/USD at or above 1.3500 will be attractive levels to sell post an expected Tory election victory," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
Dec 09 - 08:36 AM
GBP/USD - Sitting Pretty But Bulls Should Tread Carefully
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 09 - 06:25 AM
  • Bears very much in control but weekly action could warn of a turn

  • Six-consecutive lower seven-month lows defining the trend

  • Daily action below 30DMA Bolli envelope: risk of adj back inside envelope

  • Last week's acceleration could warn of a change in direction

  • Weeklies also outside the Bolli envelope: rebound risk high

  • If trend extends the 0.8315 low from April 2017 serves as a target













EUR/GBP Trader:

EUR/GBP Daily Candle Chart: Click here

EUR/GBP Weekly Candle Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Dec 09 - 07:24 AM
EUR/USD - Why You Shouldn't Bet EUR/USD Moving Far Before ECB And Fed
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 09 - 05:20 AM
  • Huge option expiry hedging is helping to contain EUR/USD this week

  • Massive EUR 3-bln expiries by 1.1070 Mon-Tues, big strikes 1.1100 all week

  • Long gamma a real bane for volatility through most of December nL1N28J03N

  • Options expiring pre Fed/ECB low, reflect lack of n-t expected volatility

  • Overnight (Tuesday) expiry vol 5.0 - break-even for straddle just 23 pips

  • Only 33 pips for Wed's. Thursday gets ECB/Fed, still only 7.0 vol/56 pips

  • Straddle captures spot moves in either direction


EUR/USD option expiries: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Dec 09 - 06:12 AM
EUR/USD - Sorry EUR/USD Traders For You Nothing Has Changed
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 09 - 04:00 AM
  • For umpteenth time EUR/USD has gravitated back to the middle of the range

  • Range seen 1.09-1.12. Highest for over 4 months 1.1250. Low 1.0879

  • Middle of the range 1.1065. 21-DMA is 1.1066

  • One-month EUR/USD volatility is just 4.03. Record low traded in Nov @ 3.8

  • Low vols exacerbate the importance of interest rate gaps

  • Rate gap weighing EUR/USD is 2%. Small maybe, big in zero/neg rate world














EUR/USD and vol Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Dec 09 - 05:00 AM
USD/JPY - Options Warn Of U.S Tariff Threat And Deeper Decline
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 09 - 02:55 AM
  • Implied vols which measure volatility risk to USD/JPY are higher

  • Especially true of 1-week - now gets Dec. 15 U.S/China tariff deadline

  • It's a 2-month high, 6.0 from 4.0 early Dec. Straddle break-even 75 pips

  • Captures Fed meeting too, but that's seen as low risk nL1N28F06D

  • Risk reversals added JPY call vs put vol premium last week, now 1.1 vs 0.6

  • That shows growing fear of deeper USD/JPY setback toward/though 108.00




USDJPY 1-week implied vol: Click here

USDJPY risk reversals: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Dec 09 - 03:48 AM
Huge EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD Amid G10 FX Option Expiries - Dec 9
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 09 - 01:40 AM
  • EUR/USD: 1.1030 (260M), 1.1055 (265M), 1.1070-80 (1BLN),

  • 1.1090 (210M), 1.1100-05 (1BLN)

  • GBP/USD: 1.3100 (522M), 1.3115 (200M), 1.3200 (434M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8500 (526M), 0.8525 (650M), 0.8550 (450M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.3220 (1BLN), 1.3285 (440M), 1.3300 (1.5BLN)

  • USD/JPY: 108.50-60 (600M), 108.70-80 (1.2BLN),

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Dec 09 - 02:36 AM
GBP/USD - Boris Leads, Stalled Ahead Of Key 1.3200 Resistance
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 08 - 10:30 PM
  • Up 0.1% with interest once Asia fully opened in a tight 1.3132/1.3151 range

  • Busy EUR/GBP trades -0.1%, despite a very tight 0.8441/0.844175 range

  • PM Johnson still has a solid lead after weekend polls nL1N28I07P

  • 1.3100 522M and 1.3115 200M and 1.3200 434M are today's close strikes

  • Charts - 5, 10 & 21 daily and weekly MAs head north - a trending setup

  • Bounce stalled late last week at 1.3168/90, 50% 2018/19 fall and May high

  • Sustained 1.3200 break would open the door to the 1.3380 2019 high in March

  • Close below the prior 1.3000 range high needed to undermine topside bias

gbp 3 dec 9 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Dec 09 - 12:12 AM
AUD/USD - Modest Move Lower In Quiet Asia
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 08 - 09:50 PM
  • AUD/USD traded to 0.6830 from New York closing level at 0.6843

  • Heading into the afternoon it is hovering just above the session low

  • Mixed China trade data released on weekend had little impact nL4N28I11X

  • Market side-lined ahead of key events this week nL4N28I0N9

  • AUD/USD support at 0.6810 where the 10, 21, 55 and 100-day-day MAs converge

  • Usually such dense convergence signals there is a break-out coming soon

  • More support at the 61.8 of the 0.6754/0.6862 move at 0.6795

  • Resistance formed around 0.6860 where decent selling orders are tipped






aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Dec 08 - 11:00 PM
AUD/USD - Offshore Factors To Lead This Week, Neutral Charts
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 08 - 09:05 PM
  • Of 0.1%, with modest interest in Asia, as 0.6862, 61.8% Oct/Nov fall caps

  • No tier 1 data or significant RBA speeches this week - risk and the USD lead

  • Market remains more dovish than the RBA - OIS prices a Feb cut at 48.4%

  • Charts - Horizontal Tenkan & Kijun lines suggest more choppy consolidation

  • Cloud rises later this week, which may provide underlying support

  • NY 0.6824 low then 0.6808 Tenkan line is initial support

  • 0.6841 Kijun line then NY 0.6857 high first resistance



aud dec 9 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Dec 08 - 09:48 PM
EUR/USD - 1.1100 Caps, But Setup Does Not Support A Deep Dip
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 08 - 07:50 PM
  • Off 0.05% in a low key start - EUR struggled above 1.1100 last week

  • 1.1030 260M, 1.1055 265M, 1.1070-80 1BLN, 1.1090-05 1.210BLN close strikes

  • First ECB meeting for Lagarde will be interesting, no policy shift expected

  • Charts - EUR in the middle of a 1.1029/1.1076 horizontal daily cloud

  • Flat lining Tenkan and Kijun lines suggest further choppy consolidation

  • 1.1076 cloud top and 1.1078 Kijun line are initial resistance

  • 1.1048 Tenkan line and Friday's 1.1039 NY low first support

eur dec 9 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Dec 08 - 08:36 PM
GBP/USD - 1.3200 Resilient, But Charts Suggest It's Vulnerable
First appeared on eFXplus on Dec 08 - 06:30 PM
  • Flat, as Johnson maintains his election lead in weekend polls nL1N28I07P

  • 1.3100 522M and 1.3115 200M strikes provide a base in Asia, 1.3200 434M caps

  • Charts - 5, 10 & 21 daily and weekly MAs head north - a trending setup

  • Bounce stalled late last week at 1.3168/90, 50% 2018/19 fall and May high

  • Strong resistance into 1.3200, close above 1.3200 would be a major positive

  • Sustained 1.3200 break would open the door to the 1.3380 2019 high in March

  • Close below the prior 1.3000 range high needed to undermine topside bias

gbp2 dec 9 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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