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HSBC shares its predictions for the forthcoming Bank of England (BoE) meeting, suggesting that it's highly likely the bank will maintain the status quo regarding its policy.

Key Takeaways:

1. Expected Vote Outcome: HSBC's economists project a 6-3 vote favoring no change in the policy. They anticipate Catherine Mann, Jonathan Haskel, and Megan Greene to vote in support of a 25bp rate increase.

2. Market Consensus: The broader market expectation aligns with a policy standstill. Out of the 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, only two anticipate a rate hike.

3. Potential for Hawkish Surprise: Given the current pricing, there might be room for a hawkish surprise. However, the odds for another rate hike in this cycle stand at just 25%.

4. BoE's Likely Stance: HSBC expects that while the BoE will keep possibilities open for a future rate hike, it will not strongly indicate its likelihood. Although inflation and wage growth remain high, they are on a downward trajectory.

5. Impact on GBP: Should the BoE hint at a more aggressive approach to curb inflation, the pound sterling (GBP) might face challenges. Concerns about stagflation, combined with a complex growth and inflation balance, persist. Any suggestion that the BoE sees a need for further tightening might adversely affect the currency.

6. Comparison to Previous Meetings: HSBC anticipates the BoE's tone to mirror that of its September meeting, albeit with slight adjustments to the forecasts introduced in August.

Conclusion:

HSBC foresees the BoE continuing its current policy in the upcoming November meeting. Any major deviations from the expected narrative, especially a hawkish tilt, could have implications for the GBP. However, the bank's stance is likely to be consistent with its previous communications, emphasizing steady policy management.