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Nov 07 - 06:55 AM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-Traders Should Beware GBP/USD Usually Drops In November

By Martin Miller  —  Nov 07 - 05:00 AM

Traders should be mindful that GBP/USD usually drops in November.

A study of GBP/USD's seasonal performance for each November since 2000 shows it has posted a negative return in 14 of the last 23 years, or 61% of the time.
While seasonal trends should not be considered in isolation, combined with other factors they can become a powerful tool.

GBP/USD saw a big rise last week to register a close above the 1.2300 Fibo, a 23.6% retrace of the 1.3144-1.2039 2023 drop, but it has faltered well ahead of the 1.2461 Fibo - a 38.2% retrace of the same 1.3144-1.2039 fall.
Plus fourteen-week momentum remains negative, reinforcing the underlying overall bearish market structure.

GBP/USD dropped on Tuesday, with investors closely watching economic data and market bets on the Bank of England’s future moves.
Expectation are that BoE and Federal Reserve rates will take a similar trajectory into 2024.
However, the U.S. economy is in better shape than the United Kingdom's, that should underpin the U.S. dollar relative to the pound.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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