Traders should be mindful that GBP/USD usually drops in November.
A study of GBP/USD's seasonal performance for each November since 2000 shows it has posted a negative return in 14 of the last 23 years, or 61% of the time.
While seasonal trends should not be considered in isolation, combined with other factors they can become a powerful tool.
GBP/USD saw a big rise last week to register a close above the 1.2300 Fibo, a 23.6% retrace of the 1.3144-1.2039 2023 drop, but it has faltered well ahead of the 1.2461 Fibo - a 38.2% retrace of the same 1.3144-1.2039 fall.
Plus fourteen-week momentum remains negative, reinforcing the underlying overall bearish market structure.
Expectation are that BoE and Federal Reserve rates will take a similar trajectory into 2024.
However, the U.S. economy is in better shape than the United Kingdom's, that should underpin the U.S. dollar relative to the pound.
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