• Sales today took USD/JPY from 142.15 to as low as 140.62 EBS

• De-dollarization and concerns over the fate of FOMC chair Powell foci

• Confidence in USD unlikely to return anytime soon on Trump policies

• USD/JPY lowest since 140.33 on Sept 17, 2024, 139.58 trough Sept 16

• Next key levels to break below Sept 17 low and 140.00

• Possible option barriers at 140.00, large stops below

• 140.00, 139.50-60 breaks project moves towards 137.25 low July 2023

• Fibo 38.2% retracement of 102.59-161.96 Jan '21-July '24 at 139.28

• 50% retracement of above move at 132.27, Fibo 61.8% at 125.26

• Related comment , also ,
USD/JPY hourly:


USD/JPY monthly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/CHF off hard in Asia, 0.8170 to 0.8070 EBS on broad USD weakness

• Pair lowest since 0.7360 spike low EBS in January 2015

• De-dollarization continuing, CHF traditional safe-haven

• Resistance on any rebound from 0.8129 hourly Ichimoku tenkan, kijun 0.8149

• Support likely at every big figure from 0.8000

• Massive $950 mln 0.8100 option expiries tomorrow pivot on Europe return?

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/CHF monthly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD surges early Asia, 1.1393 to 1.1486 EBS, best since Feb '22 1.1495

• Market thin in Asia on Australia/NZ, Europe Easter Monday holidays today

• Break above bullish, projects tests towards 1.1616 high in Nov '21

• Monthly chart shows underlying support now at flat 100-MMA at 1.1201

• Support today from hourly Ichimoku tenkan at 1.1438, kijun 1.1422 below

• Massive E1bln 1.1450, E1.2bln 1.1390-1.1400 option expiries tom supportive?

• Focus turning away from US tariffs for now pending fresh negotiations

• More focus on de-dollarization as investors continue to shun US assets

• Separately, EUR/JPY 161.88-162.18 EBS in Asia, on quiet side

• Cross sideways well within recent ranges with JPY bid as much as EUR

• Related , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD:


EUR/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD firms up to 0.6392 while Australia closed Mon

• Hits an intraday peak of 0.6400, flashing bullish sign

• Mon close above 0.6386 reaffirms Bollinger uptrend channel

• China stocks rally 0.5%, in faint hopes for US-China talks

• Trump signals end of tit-for-tat China tariffs

• China says won't make any deal at its expense
AUD:

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY from 142.15 early Asia to 141.22 EBS in holiday-thinned trading

• Australia/New Zealand, Europe closed for Easter Monday

• Confidence in USD continuing on Trump moves to replace FOMC Chair Powell

• De-dollarization proceeding apace too with investors shunning US assets

• USD/JPY lowest since 140.45 Sept 18 '24, 140.33 Sept 17, 139.58 Sept 16

• Some support eyed @141.00 but specs eyeing tests towards Sept 16 trough

• Few option expiries today, of note only 142.80-90 $330 mln

• Few tomorrow too with only $550 mln between 140.55-60 strikes in area

• Interest rate differentials not a factor now given current uncertainties

• Bias to remain down for USD/JPY with many now eyeing moves to the 130s

• Related comments , , also ,

• On Fed/Fed-speak , , ,

• Japan on FX , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD creeps up to 0.6389 early Mon vs close 0.6377

• Edging back into Bollinger uptrend channel at 0.6386

• Mon close above will place it on track toward 200 DMA 0.6470

• USD softening a touch again, amid Easter long weekend

• Australia financial markets closed Easter Monday

• HK closed; China to hold key lending rates steady
AUD:

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY slips to bottom of 142.13-142.52 range as USD eases in thin market

• Second round of Japan-US trade negotiations next week

• Fed Daly flags inflation risks though stays with couple cuts this year

• WH adviser Hassett said will further examine notion to fire Fed Chair Powell

• Pres Trump says Powell should lower rates, in conversation with China

• Separately, China's cabinet vowed to stabilise employment, foreign trade

• Series of lower daily highs continues to weigh, momentum stalled

• Multiple clouds offer resist. at higher levels

• Supp: 141.62 weekly low; 142.43 Sept 17 high; 140.65 lower Bollinger

• Resist: 143.11, Thsdy high; 143.76 9-EMA, 144.00 Apr 10 low

• IMF/World Bank meeting, Japan PMIs early next week
Yen

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD sits near top of thin 1.3262-1.3287 range in low holiday turnover

• Fed Daly warns about inflation risks, sticks with couple cuts this year

• WH adviser Hassett to continue study on if could fire Fed Chair Powell

• Pres Trump repeats view that Powell should bring down rates

• Cable is up for ninth day in trending market; nearly overbought on RSI

• Futures open interest up for fourth day, suggesting longs building

• Crossover of 55-DMA and 200-DMA supports bulls case

• Supp: 1.3241 5-DMA, 1.3201-07 Apr 14 low and Apr 3 high

• Resist: 1.3285 Oct 3 high, 1.3323 upper 21-day Bollinger

• UK flash PMIs and BOE Gov Bailey at IMF/World Bank next week
GBP

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD down 0.21% on the day in New York trade at 0.6377

• New York range 0.6371-0.6377 amid holiday-thinned trade on Good Friday

• Aussie has retreated from Thurs/Fri peak 0.6395, highest since late-Feb

• Consolidating recovery from April 9 low of 0.5910; bullish monthly hammer

• Rising weekly, monthly RSI, falling daily RSI; has struggled with congestion in 0.6390/0.6409 area

• 50% retracement of Sept-April fall looms at 0.6427 with 200-DMA at 0.6472 declining in that direction

• Cluster of moving averages sits below, starting with 55- and 100-DMA at 0.6289/83

AUD closer 4/18/2025


(Burton Frierson)

(Change RIC)

• USD/CAD stabilizes just above a 5-mo. doji low of 1.3829 set on Monday

• Weekly losses slow near cycle highs since Oct. 2022 between 1.3860-1.3976

• Futures positioning hit 6-mo. low on Wed., implying loonie short-covering

• Sharp USD/CAD drop in April comes even as fwd points winden against loonie

• Pair is nearing oversold on RSI, 5-DMA at 1.3872 is near-term resist.

• Risk reversals at a 6-mo. low above par suggests momentum may stall

• Polling, oil more so than data may guide CAD before April 28 election

• Close below 1.38 or 1.4010 200-DMA offers a directional bias
CAD2


CAD

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY firms toward top of 142.25-142.52 range in low holiday turnover

• Second round of Japan-US trade negotiations next week

• Japan doesn't manipulate currency, Fin Min Kato told parliament

• BOJ Gov Ueda said will keep raising rates if inflation rises toward 2%

• Core CPI accelerated in March due to food costs

• New ambassador to Japan said US, Japan need work together on defense

• More auto adjustments, Toyota may shift some production to US

• Series of lower daily highs continues to weigh though momentum has stalled

• Multiple clouds offer resist. at higher levels; monthly cloud bottom 145.80

• Supp: 141.62 weekly low; 142.43 Sept 17 high; 140.69 lower BOllinger

• Resist: 143.11, Thsdy high; 143.81 9-EMA, 144.00 Apr 10 low

• IMF/World Bank meeting, Japan PMIs early next week
Yen

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD stays to very narrow 1.1362-1.1386 range in holiday trade

• Risk tone improved Asia on hopes US-China tariff battle may subside

• Sectry State Rubio says US may exit Russia-Ukraine peace deal if no progress

• Pair keeps bullish bias with 5-DMA lending nearby support at 1.3535

• 55-DMA looks to cross above 200-DMA at 1.0753

• Needs to top 1.1474 YTD high and 1.15 barriers to see upward momentum build

• Remains overbought on RSI as congestion builds above 1.1242 April 10 high

• No US data, Fed Daly to speak and G20 fin mins/CBers set to meet

• EU flash PMIs, consumer conf. and trade among data points next week
EUR

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY, major pairs mostly in stasis in Tokyo Good Friday trading

• USD/JPY in tight 142.25-52 EBS range with flows few and far between

• Same for JPY crosses which hold for the most part steady in tight ranges

• Some Japanese headlines from FinMin Kato, BOJ Ueda but taken in stride

• Higher Japan CPI data taken in stride too but suggests BOJ to stay hawkish

• EUR/USD 1.1360-86 EBS, well within recent 1.1264-1.1474 range since Apr 11

• GBP/USD better bid between 1.3269-87, holding below 1.3292 Wednesday high

• AUD/USD bid too between 0.6367-94, market still seen heavy from 0.6400

• Some option expiries today despite Good Friday market holidays

• EUR/USD 1.1390 E1.1 bln, AUD/USD 0.6350 A$750 mln, also USD/JPY 142 $745 mln

• Related , , , on JP CPI
USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/USD hourly:


AUD/USD hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD and EUR/JPY doing little in quiet Tokyo trading

• Most major markets aside from Tokyo closed for Good Friday

• EUR/USD 1.1360-86 EBS, holding below recent highs, 1.1474 April 11

• Sideways since then with downside limited to 1.1264 Tuesday

• Despite the holiday, E1.4 bln in option expiries at 1.1390 strike today

• To provide some gravitational pull? To help cap any moves to upside?

• EUR/JPY on hold between 161.87-95 EBS, in area of 161.75 100-DMA

• Support from 161.57 200-HMA, buying below recently profitable

• EUR mostly unfazed following ECB rate cut yesterday

• Markets betting on more ECB cuts but effect on EUR limited

• Related comment , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD:


EUR/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Good Friday and most major markets in Asia aside from Tokyo closed

• Singapore and Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand closed

• Most of continental Europe and the UK also closed today, Monday

• Tokyo, the US only markets open today, US will be closed Easter Monday too

• Thin and maybe choppy trading eyed in Tokyo, caution to reign

• This with Japan-US trade negotiations on, IMF/World Bank meets next week

• Market could react to any major news on US tariffs, trade, et al

• USD/JPY 142.30-52 EBS so far on very little volume

• US yields still on heavy side yesterday, JGB yields holding mostly steady

• US Treasury 2s indicated @3.799%, 10s @4.332%, JGB 2s @0.632%, 10s @1.291%

• Some option expiries today - 141.50 $300 mln, 142.00 $745 mln, 142.50s too

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Japan/US talks , , IMF view

• Fed-speak, et al , ,
USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

April 17 (Reuters) - EUR/USD fell on Thursday after the European Central Bank cut interest rates, as expected, and cautioned that U.S. tariffs may significantly impact economic growth, increasing expectations for further policy easing.

The common currency was also hampered by a jump in oil and higher Treasury yields after a series of comments by U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni expressed some optimism about resolving U.S.-European trade tensions though there is no hurry to make deals. Trump also suggested that a Ukraine minerals deal may be signed next Thursday and that he is not in a hurry to launch an attack on Iran over its nuclear program. Separately, Trump said, via social media, that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's termination "cannot come fast enough" and that rates should have been lowered already, later criticizing Fed policy making. The Wall Street Journal later reported that Trump has discussed firing Powell for months and talked about it with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Warsh has advised against trying to fire Powell. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he sees no imminent need for a change in central bank interest rate policy as Trump administration tariffs are likely to drive up inflation, weaken growth and push up unemployment. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said trade tensions and sweeping shifts in the global trading system will trigger downward revisions but no global recession is expected.

EUR/USD fell to 1.1336 following the ECB's rate cut and stayed lower throughout the session as it continues to adjust from overbought levels. Support is forming above the April 10 high of 1.1241, with risk reversals indicating potential upside risks beyond 1.15 barriers. A drop below the 2024 high of 1.1213 signals a deeper pullback. Markets currently anticipate cuts at the next two ECB meetings, which would bring the benchmark rate to 1.75%.

GBP/USD rose marginally though largely held to a narrow range before the Easter holidays. Support is seen near 1.32 with resistance at the year-to-date high of 1.3292. Focus will be on UK flash PMIs and comments by Bank of England officials next week.

USD/JPY edged up, underpinned by higher oil and firmer yields. The pair rose briefly after Trump said that he had a very productive meeting with Japan trade representatives on Wednesday though a series of lower highs continues to weigh on the pair. Nearby resistance is seen at the 144.55 April 4 low with solid support developing just above 141.60. A short-covering rally could ensue if oil continues to climb.

Tokyo focus will be on upcoming nationwide CPI numbers Friday.

Treasury yields were up 1 to 6 basis points as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve was up about 3 basis points to +50.3bp.

The S&P 500 rose 0.25% in modest pre-holiday turnover.

Oil jumped 3.25% on trade deal hopes.

Gold fell 0.90% and copper dropped 1.5%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.25%, USD/JPY +0.40%, GBP/USD +0.22%, AUD/USD +0.28%, DXY +0.01%, EUR/JPY +0.16%, GBP/JPY +0.58%, AUD/JPY +0.69%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

• AUD/USD opened NY near 0.6350 after 0.63335 traded overnight, rally extended

• Pair lifted into positive territory on UDS/CNH dip below 7.3000, AUD/JPY rally above 91.00

• Copper and equity gains also helped underpin AUD/USD gains

• 0.6391 traded in NY's morning, pair neared 0.6380 late, traded up +0.15%

• Techs are bullish; rising daily & monthly imply upward momentum is in place

• Daily & monthly bull hammer candles reinforce bullish tech signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP +0.1%, holds narrow range, respects support at 1.32

• Lack of dollar appeal keeps GBP/USD on the frontfoot

• Price action subdued ahead of Easter holidays

• Resistance: 1.3292 (YTD high), close above would open up 1.3434 (2024 high)

• EUR/GBP pullback resumes, attempts retest of 200-week MA (0.8545)

• Looking ahead - UK flash PMIs, BoE's Huw, Lombardelli due next week
gbpusd hourly chart

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Cable has traded on a 1.32 handle since Tuesday's North American open

• 1.3203-1.3259 defines Maundy Thursday range-to-date (low before high)

• Offers expected pre-1.33 (1.3292 was Wednesday's six-month high)

• Trump says Fed chair Powell's termination "cannot come fast enough"

• Fed's Williams sees no looming need to change monetary policy - Fox Business

• Reuters poll-62 of 101 economists see Fed on hold until at least July

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

BofA sees precautionary signs of stress in US funding markets, particularly around repo rates and short-term futures, though tensions have subsided for now. On yields, supply/demand pressures could push 10Y USTs up to 5.75%, beyond which the Fed may have to step in as a buyer of last resort.

Key Points:

1. Funding Market Stress — Flickers, Not Fire Yet:

   • Early last week, overnight UST repo rates spiked, exceeding quarter-end levels—pointing to liquidity strain.

   • April SOFR/FF futures were heavily sold after the weak 3-year UST auction, suggesting skepticism around Treasury demand.

   • However, stronger 10Y and 30Y auctions helped ease concerns.

   • Attention now shifts to tax-day liquidity drain (mid-April), which could revive funding pressures as collateral settles.

2. How High Can Yields Go?

   • Drawing parallels with the UK’s Truss-era yield shock, BofA estimates that 10Y UST yields could rise to 5.25–5.75% in a similar loss-of-confidence scenario.

   • Beyond this point, market dysfunction may force the Fed to intervene—not to ease, but to restore functioning.

Conclusion:

While funding pressures have cooled, BofA warns that stress could return, especially around April tax-related liquidity needs. Meanwhile, in a supply-driven rate spiral, UST yields near 5.75% may be the point where the Fed must step in, even without a policy pivot.

Synopsis:

ANZ remains constructively bullish on EUR/USD, noting that recent gains above 1.11 are supported by persistent USD weakness. While EU sentiment has soured post-tariffs, positioning data suggests the EUR long trade is not yet overcrowded, keeping dips shallow in the near term.

Key Points:

• EUR/USD Resilience:
  Despite deteriorating sentiment from April ZEW and Sentix surveys, EUR/USD has held above 1.11, signaling strong support from USD weakness.

• EU Sentiment Turns Lower:
  German ZEW expectations plunged 66pts to -14, and current conditions sit near pandemic lows. This aligns with broader EU pessimism and points to potential softness in upcoming PMI data.

• Positioning Not Overstretched:
  CFTC data shows EUR/USD net longs are still modest, driven more by short covering than aggressive long buildup. This suggests the trade is not yet crowded.

• Cross Risks:
  While EUR/USD remains supported, downside may appear on non-USD crosses like EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF, particularly if PMIs disappoint.

Conclusion:

ANZ maintains a positive near-term outlook for EUR/USD as USD headwinds persist, but acknowledges that EUR cross-pair risks are rising with faltering EU data. The EUR/USD rally still has room to run, especially as positioning remains far from euphoric.

• Cable has traded a 43 pip range on Maundy Thursday thus far; 1.3203-1.3246

• 1.3203 is lowest level since Wednesday's six-month high of 1.3292

• Drop to 1.3203 followed hawkish guidance from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday

• Trump says end of Powell's term "cannot come fast enough" (Truth Social)

• Powell's term ends in May 2026. ECB 25 bps rate cut expected at 1215 GMT

• Reuters poll: 62 of 101 economists see Fed on hold until at least July

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD bull cycle likely to extend above 1.1500 eventually

• Continued trading above the broken 1.1271 Fibo is a very bullish sign

• 1.1271 Fibo is 61.8% retrace of the 1.2349 to 0.9528 (2021 to 2022) EBS drop

• Scope for bigger gains to 1.1683 Fibo, 76.4% of the same 1.2349-0.9528 fall

• 14-week momentum remains positive, that adds to the bullish bias

• If EUR/USD slips back below 1.1271 Fibo, that would hint at a new top

• USD's momentum still negative . Previous update

Weekly Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Impressive seven consecutive daily bull closes for GBP/USD

• New trend high of 1.3292 Wednesday but GBP fell sharply into the close

• A long upper candle shadow highlighting demand fade

• An accelerating trend can also ring alarm bells

• However, tight ranges Wednesday-Thursday: easing the overbought condition

• Daily RSI flat lining at 65.00 and slow stochs poised to cross bearishly

• Short-term adjustment risk but weekly chart still significantly bullish
GBP/USD daily candle chart:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)