CIBC Research expects the BoC to only consider raising rates after the Fed starts its tightening policy in 2023.
"We have a Canadian economy which has fallen further than the US in 2020. It faces at least a couple of quarters in which it will lag behind the US in the all important race to vaccinate its citizens. The US Treasury’s coffers are being loaded up with ample additional fiscal stimulus funds. The US economy will be back at its non-inflationary potential output well ahead of Canada’s, and both central banks lean heavily on attaining that target for output as a guidepost for the inflation outlook and the need to tighten policy. And finally, the Bank of Canada has made it clear that it is concerned about having a stronger currency," CIBC notes.
"That seems to add up to an overwhelming case for Governor Macklem to say “after you, Chairman Powell,” and let the Fed go through the door to higher policy rates first. Against that, we have a forecast from the FOMC that confidently predicts that it won’t be tightening policy in 2023, based on a forecast that America’s growth rate will slow dramatically in that year with no help from higher rates. Look for the Fed to shift its guidance by the end of this year, and with that, for the market to reach the same conclusion we have," CIBC adds.