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Oct 17 - 05:55 PM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-US Recap: EUR/USD Bounces Despite Hot US Data

By Randolph Donney  —  Oct 17 - 02:35 PM

The dollar was nearly flat after an earlier dip despite Tuesday's U.S. data beating forecasts, except for NAHB miss, as consolidation of the greenback's hefty gains since July persists.

Fed views that surging Treasury yields reduce the need for another hike have also fostered consolidation.

EUR/USD rose 0.01%.
It briefly dipped in response to surprisingly strong U.S. retail sales then bounced to a 1.0595 high on EBS, capped before 1.0600 offers and the downtrend line from July's highs.

A close above October's 1.0640 high is needed to turn the downtrend consolidation into a larger correction higher.

Traders initially also looked past above-forecast industrial production and capacity utilization that helped send 2- and 10-year year Treasury yields 13 and 14bp higher, with 2s at their highest since 2006 and 10s just below September's highest since 2006.

A 9bp rise in 2- and 10-year bunds yields reduced the drop in bund-Treasury yields spreads.

Sterling fell 0.35%, as UK labor data kept economic concerns front-and-center, and with key inflation data due out on Wednesday.

USD/JPY rose 0.2%, but remained stuck below the Oct.
3 150.165 high for 2023 and the far more daunting 32-year peak from 2022 at 151.94.
Tuesday's muted gains came on rising Treasury-JGB yields spreads, though 10-year JGB yields hit their highest since 2013 at 82bp, nearing the BoJ's 100bp hard yield cap.

That amid speculation the BoJ will raise its inflation forecasts, making its still ultra-easy policies look further out of synch.
And amid potential MoF FX intervention.

Markets overall continue weighing risks tied to the Israel-Hamas war and what Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others will say about policy later this week.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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