April 22 (Reuters) - USD/JPY remains trapped in a core 158.00-160.00 range, capped by the threat of Japanese FX intervention while Middle East uncertainties, high energy prices and USD haven demand limit the downside. Only a Bank of Japan rate hike may spur a meaningful JPY rally, perhaps to the 155 area or lower. A surprise move by the BOJ at the April 27-28 policy meeting would go a long way in capping USD/JPY and even sending it lower into the upcoming Japanese "Golden Week" holidays. However, this seems a stretch with the probability of a hike next week currently down to 9% according to Totan Research/ICAP. The probability of a June move has risen to 62%. Despite BOJ and Ministry of Finance misgivings over the inflationary effects of the weak yen, the market sees BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and most on the Policy Board as cautious about the impact of Middle East developments on the economy amid elevated fears over a hit to growth. Ceteris paribus, USD/JPY looks set to remain range-bound with Japanese importers continuing to buy dips and exporters selling into rallies. Related past comments , , .
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(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai)