GBP/USD held onto a slight gain in early NorAm trading, +0.2% at 1.2487, having once again backed away from highs above 1.25, near 100-DMA resistance, as markets continues to adjust Fed rate expectations lower after a raft of data last week hinted at waning U.S. inflation.
Sterling's rise from late October lows by 1.2070 has come on shifting Fed views and narrowing U.S.-UK rate spreads narrow.
While Fed speakers continue to highlight the need for a restrictive stance for some time while keeping the option open for another hike, futures markets have pulled forward cut expectations from H2 2024 to Q2 2024, helping prop up the pound despite recent dovish BoE votes.
The current USD weakness is likely to be contained, as lower inflation and growth expectations are not endemic to the U.S. exclusively.
The BoE is also expected to begin lowering rates in early 2024, as UK disinflation gains momentum, which should temper any further sterling gains once the current USD selloff runs its course.
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