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Feb 03 - 10:55 AM

USD: Positive ADP Report Points To Upside Risk To NFP Print On Friday - CIBC

By eFXdata  —  Feb 03 - 09:05 AM

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's ADP Employment report for the month of January.

"The ADP survey suggested that private sector employment rose by 174K in January, well above the 70K consensus forecast and more than reversing a revised 78K decline in the prior month (prev -123K). Even though mobility data continued to track lower into mid-January, the first month of the year is typically a period of job losses before seasonal adjustments are made, including in some areas that were hardest hit by the pandemic such as bars and restaurants," CIBC notes. 

"This same phenomenon could be seen in Friday's payrolls figures as well, and is an upside risk to ours and the consensus forecast...Looking forward, falling case numbers and a gradual re-re-opening of some regional economies should support an acceleration of job gains over the spring and into the summer," CIBC adds. 

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary

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