Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs expects the March U.S. employment report to show a 150k increase in nonfarm payrolls, modestly above consensus, driven by rebounds in weather-sensitive sectors and the return of striking workers, though federal job losses may partially offset gains.

Key Points:

• Payroll Forecast: +150k in March vs. consensus ~135k.

  • Boosts: Return of striking workers (+15k), rebound in weather-hit sectors, and solid big data indicators.

  • Drags: Federal government employment expected to subtract ~25k jobs.

• Unemployment & Wages:

  • Unemployment rate: Steady at 4.1%.

  • Average hourly earnings: Up 0.3% m/m, aided by positive calendar effects.

• Watch for Policy Signals:

  • Tariffs: Potential impact on manufacturing hiring.

  • Federal cuts: Possible spillovers to state/local jobs in healthcare and education.

  • Immigration policy: Household survey could show a drop in undocumented worker participation.

• JOLTS Outlook: Job openings likely declined to 7.5 million, based on online job postings, slightly below consensus.

Conclusion:

Goldman expects a resilient jobs print that reveals early signs of fiscal and trade policy impact. Despite some headline softness from government jobs, the overall tone should reflect underlying labor market stability with moderate wage growth, reinforcing a cautious but steady Fed outlook.