• EUR/USD has been capped multiple times by the key 1.0541 Fibo

• Those repeated failures, in 2025, have heightened the downside risk

• 1.0541 Fibo is a 38.2% retrace of 1.1214 to 1.0125 (Sept to Feb) EBS drop

• Negative 14-week momentum reading also highlights the downside bias

• A break and weekly close above the 1.0541 Fibo would signal a shift higher

• EUR/USD Trader . Previous update

Weekly Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)