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Mar 08 - 10:55 AM

JPY: Kuroda's Last Dance: 4 Scenarios And USD/JPY Targets For BoJ March Meeting - BofA

By eFXdata  —  Mar 08 - 09:36 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses USD/JPY outlook around this week's BoJ policy meeting.

"The BoJ board concludes its next monetary policy meeting (MPM) on Friday, 10 March. This will be the last MPM under Governor Kuroda. We expect no change in the BoJ's key policy targets, including the +/-50bp band around the zero% 10yr JGB long rate target," BofA notes. 

"We summarize expected market reactions to tail risks:

  • No change: the market to await Ueda (USD/JPY 137)
  • Shortening target from 10yr to 5yr: It could eventually be bearish for JPY if Ueda confirms dovish stance on the front-end as a 5yr ceiling can work as forward guidance (USD/JPY 134-136).
  • Raising 10yr target band ceiling to 1% from 0.5%: Policy uncertainty to remain high (USD/JPY 132-134).
  • YCC removal: Market may price in earlier and faster rate hikes on the front-end (USD/JPY 128-130)," BofA adds.
BofA Global Research


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