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Mar 07 - 02:55 PM

Morgan Stanley: What to Expect from the February's US Jobs Report on Friday?

By eFXdata  —  Mar 07 - 01:15 PM


Morgan Stanley projects a moderate increase in total payrolls for February 2024, forecasting a 205,000 rise (160,000 in the private sector), following two months of stronger growth. They anticipate average hourly earnings to remain unchanged from their 0.6% increase in January. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.7%, albeit with a potential increase in labor force participation.

Key Points:

  • Moderate Payroll Increase: Estimation of a 205,000 rise in total payrolls for February, indicating a slowdown from previous months' stronger figures.
  • Stable Average Hourly Earnings: Predictions suggest no change in average hourly earnings following January's 0.6% increase.
  • Unchanged Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.7%, with an anticipated rise in labor force participation hinting at a more active job market.


Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests a continuation of robust job growth in the US for February 2024, albeit at a moderated pace compared to the preceding months. The stability in wage growth and unemployment, coupled with a potentially higher participation rate, paints a picture of a healthy but adjusting labor market. This report will be key in informing policymakers and investors about the state of the US economy and potential future monetary policy directions.

Morgan Stanley Research/Market Commentary


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