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Mar 07 - 02:55 PM

Morgan Stanley: What to Expect from the February's US Jobs Report on Friday?

By eFXdata  —  Mar 07 - 01:15 PM

Synopsis:

Morgan Stanley projects a moderate increase in total payrolls for February 2024, forecasting a 205,000 rise (160,000 in the private sector), following two months of stronger growth. They anticipate average hourly earnings to remain unchanged from their 0.6% increase in January. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.7%, albeit with a potential increase in labor force participation.

Key Points:

  • Moderate Payroll Increase: Estimation of a 205,000 rise in total payrolls for February, indicating a slowdown from previous months' stronger figures.
  • Stable Average Hourly Earnings: Predictions suggest no change in average hourly earnings following January's 0.6% increase.
  • Unchanged Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.7%, with an anticipated rise in labor force participation hinting at a more active job market.

Conclusion:

Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests a continuation of robust job growth in the US for February 2024, albeit at a moderated pace compared to the preceding months. The stability in wage growth and unemployment, coupled with a potentially higher participation rate, paints a picture of a healthy but adjusting labor market. This report will be key in informing policymakers and investors about the state of the US economy and potential future monetary policy directions.

Source:
Morgan Stanley Research/Market Commentary

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