UOB Research discusses the latest Brexit scenarios ahead of the October 31 deadline.
"The Brexit clock continues to tick down – with only slightly over 80 days more, now – until 31 October 2019. Yet, there has been virtually no progress on the Brexit front since Boris Johnson took over as UK’s PM on 24 July 2019. It is, hence, not surprising that although the House of Commons is on a break for a long recess until 3 September 2019, negative headlines surrounding Brexit continue to stream in," UOB notes.
"The probability of a “no-deal” Brexit is building up and a sense of nervousness has continued to weigh on the GBP. Ultimately, we think Boris Johnson will face stiff opposition from the UK Parliament if he pushes for a “no deal” Brexit. That might lead to another Article 50 extension if the new leader applies for more time to break the deadlock. But one way or another, the probability of a general election is definitely rising and we are now attaching the highest probability to this scenario," UOB adds.