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TDUX
Aug 28 - 09:55 AM

ANZ: We Retain a Constructive Near-Term Bias on AUD/USD on Hawkish RBA Repricing; 0.71 to Attract Buyers

By eFXdata  —  Aug 28 - 09:16 AM

ANZ Research discusses AUD/USD outlook fot the coming week.

"We have revised our RBA call and now expect a 25bp hike in November, with a clear risk of an earlier move as a 1.0% q/q trimmed mean print in Q3 now looks more likely than 0.9%. The upside risks flagged in August are therefore closer to crystallising. The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on 11 August in a unanimous decision, while Governor Bullock kept the door open to further tightening if inflation risks build. The domestic calendar is light into month-end, leaving the AUD more exposed to offshore drivers," ANZ notes.

"Jackson Hole on 27–29 August is the key event, with Warsh's keynote in focus. A non-committal or dovish tone could extend the AUD/USD's rally toward 0.72 and then the year-to-date high near 0.7280, while a hawkish surprise would likely cap gains near term, with downside probably limited to around 0.7120. We retain a constructive near-term bias on hawkish RBA repricing, with Jackson Hole the main swing factor and dips toward 0.71 likely to attract buyers unless the USD receives a hawkish surprise," ANZ adds.

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
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