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May 01 - 02:55 PM

USD: 3 Reasons Why This Episode Of Peak Fed Rates May Be Different For The USD - Credit Agricole

By eFXdata  —  May 01 - 01:30 PM

Credit Agricole CIB Research argues that this episode of Fed peak rates may actually result in USD strength.

"This week, the FOMC should draw the curtain on its tightening cycle after hiking one last time. While a peak Fed has historically heralded the start of periods of sustained USD underperformance, we think that the current episode may be different for several reasons: (1) the Fed should keep its rates stable as it tries to bring inflation under control and thus defy market expectations of rate cuts in H223;" CACIB notes. 

"(2) a less-dovish-than-expected Fed pivot, coupled with weakening US data, bank sector worries and debt-ceiling angst could fuel risk aversion; and (3) the USD that currently ‘resides’ at the bottom of the so-called ‘USD smile’ could receive a boost from any paring back of Fed rate cut bets and/or a deterioration of risk sentiment," CACIB adds. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary


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