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May 14 - 11:55 AM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-Sterling Could Rally Toward May High 1.4167 After Weak Retail Sales

By Paul Spirgel  —  May 14 - 10:19 AM

GBP/USD could rally toward May's highs near 1.4167 and potentially 1.50 after a big boost from unexpectedly weak headline U.S. retail sales nL1N2N02C7 and other data, which hastened the dollar's retreat from inflation-fueled gains earlier in the week nL1N2MZ15U.

Though upward revisions cushioned the blow, disappointing industrial output nL1N2N02C7 and consumer sentiment nAQN046856 -- in addition to the retail sales -- lent credence to Fed assurances about delaying tapering and hikes, intensifying the weight on the dollar.

Sterling bulls remain emboldened, hopeful that the UK pandemic recovery, in addition to the removal of Brexit uncertainties, which weighed on GBP/USD since 2016, will catapult the pound above its Feb.
2021 high at 1.4240, putting it on track to recover to pre-Brexit levels near 1.50.

Cautionary notes came in above-forecast U.S. export and import prices nL1N2N02FF and surging consumer inflation expectations in the University of Michigan report.

However, if UK employment data beat expectations on Tuesday, cable's prospects of advancing toward 1.50 would improve as the BoE has not put pre-conditions on taper or rate hikes.

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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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