The EUR/USD range was roughly 1.12-1.15 until April.
Now it's dropped, and the base of the range, near 1.1100, may hold for a similar amount of time.
Since the start of April EUR/USD has bounced four times from lows close to 1.1100: April 26, 1.1110; May 3, 1.1135; May 23, 1.1106; and May 30, 1.1116.
The swing in expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts was a big driver for that last move up, but it's challenged by the greatest force for all FX moves in the past year -- low volatility.
No moves are happening quickly and low vols oppose moves that go against interest rates.
The slow evolution of moves suits those who are short, who are paid handsomely to hold those bets.
EUR/USD is unlikely to sustain any move over the 200-DMA at 1.1372.
For the range to hold, EUR/USD shouldn't break the March peak at 1.1448.
eurusd and vol Click here