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Sep 17 - 07:55 AM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-Biden Election Win Might Do Sterling Few Favours

By Rob Howard  —  Sep 17 - 05:50 AM

Sterling could take a hit if October comes and goes without the European Union and United Kingdom agreeing a trade deal and then Joe Biden wins the U.S. presidential election on Nov.
3.

Biden has warned Britain that it must honour the Northern Irish peace deal as it extracts itself from the EU or there would be no UK-U.S.
trade deal. nL8N2GE15E.
In contrast, Donald Trump -- who has backed Brexit from the outset -- is not expected to be as forthright on the issue.

Bookmakers currently suggest there is a 52% probability of Biden winning the presidential election.
That percentage is derived from odds quoted by Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Betway.

Societe Generale, meanwhile, now sees an 80% probability of a no EU-UK trade deal before year-end. nL8N2GE1Q7

The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier still hopes that a deal is possible, stressing that the coming days would be decisive, according to diplomatic sources.
Barnier is due to meet his UK counterpart, David Frost, around 1400GMT in Brussels. nL8N2GE26P

Related column/comments: nL8N2E15MGnL1N2GD09FnL1N2G609S

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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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