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Aug 04 - 12:55 PM

Credit Agricole: Updated Short-term Fair Value Estimates for USD/JPY and EUR/JPY

By eFXdata  —  Aug 04 - 10:45 AM

Credit Agricole provides insights on the short-term fair value of USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, highlighting recent shifts and potential overvaluations.

Key Points:

  • USD/JPY Model Instability: Credit Agricole's primary FAST FX model for USD/JPY has shown signs of instability over the past week.

  • USD/JPY Fair Value Adjustment: Despite the primary model's instability, the secondary model indicates a slight decline in USD/JPY’s short-term fair value, moving from 141.60 to 141.52 in the last week.

  • EUR/JPY Fair Value Decline: EUR/JPY’s short-term fair value, as estimated by the stable primary model, has also seen a drop. It went from 155.00 down to 154.55 over the week.

  • Potential Overvaluation: Based on these estimates, both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY appear to be overvalued. However, they have not yet reached a threshold that would prompt Credit Agricole to issue sell recommendations.


Credit Agricole suggests caution, noting recent changes in the fair value of both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. While there are signs of overvaluation, the bank stops short of advising sell actions at this juncture. Investors should keep an eye on these rates and any further updates from the bank's models.

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary


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