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Apr 02 - 08:55 AM

EUR/USD's Holiday-Dimmed Rebound Stalled Below 1.18 Pre-Payrolls

By Randolph Donney  —  Apr 02 - 07:50 AM

  • EUR/USD's 1.1787 EBS high shy of 10-DMA, Monday's high at 1.1792/95

  • Also 38.2% of Feb. 22-31 drop and down TL from Feb's high at 1.1797/802

  • Large 118 option expiries next week also seen capping prices

  • What interest there is today will be in the NFP report, quick reaction

  • Treasury yield's slide halted ahead of the report, early bond close

  • No cash equity trading, but futures holding Thursday, overnight gains

  • EUR/USD is oversold above 1.17 and 1.1695 Fibo props

  • But major support/targets are by 1.16 from Nov, Sep low, weekly cloud top

  • Recovery could stem from improving EZ vaccinations seen salvaging H2 growth

  • US fiscal stimulus, yields increases also perhaps mostly priced in

  • NFP forecast at +647k, with jobless rate -0.2% to 6.0% nL1N2LU28Z

  • But a long road back to pre-pandemic employment levels, Fed hikes

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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