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Apr 01 - 05:55 AM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-GBP/USD Usually Gains In April, But Maybe Not This Year

By Martin Miller  —  Apr 01 - 03:55 AM

GBP/USD's performance for each April since 2000 shows it has risen in 18 of the past 22 years, or a whopping 82% of the time.
However FX traders should not consider seasonality in isolation.
Rather it needs to be corroborated with other factors in order for it to be a useful tool.

The tendency for GBP/USD to rise in April is probably partly down to international inflows at the beginning of the UK's financial year, which leads to strong demand for the pound.
However, this seasonal trend might be overshadowed this year by the latest negative technical developments.

The monthly chart issued a negative signal after cable registered a close at the end of March under the 1.3166 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of 1.1413 to 1.4250 (2020 to 2021) rise.
The bearish outlook is being reinforced by 14-month momentum that turned negative in February and remained so in March.

Related comment on BoE interest rate maze and pound guidance nL2N2VX1R6

For more click on FXBUZ

April Seasonal Chart: Click here

Monthly Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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