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Dec 06 - 08:55 PM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-Sterling Remains Resilient Into The Brexit Conclusion

By Andrew M Spencer  —  Dec 06 - 07:20 PM

Sterling reversed an initial 0.5% fall to 1.3360 early Monday, showing continued resilience despite a lack of progress during weekend Brexit negotiations, with Ireland's usually optimistic prime minister now saying the odds on a deal are only 50-50.

Key differences over the European Union's level playing field for government subsidies and policy remain unresolved nL1N2IM0HX. While the Guardian newspaper reported progress on the dispute over UK fishing rights after talks resumed on Sunday nFWN2IK0YA, this was quickly denied by a UK government source, according to ITV nFWN2IK0YB.

A no-deal Brexit will be a major economic negative for both sides, but especially for the UK.
The spreading coronavirus compounds the damage, as economies struggle to recover.
Vaccines are coming onto the market faster than initially hoped, with the UK set to roll out Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine this week nL1N2IM04X. Yet the sheer logistics of mass vaccination suggest that it will take months for economies to recover.

Key GBP/USD resistance levels on a deal are 1.3677, 76.4% of the 2018-2020 decline, and the 1.4377 high from 2018.
On no deal, the 1.2854 November low, 1.2745 200-day moving average, and 1.2676 September base are the key supports.

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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