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Jul 11 - 11:00 AM
USD: Firmer Core CPI One More Reason Why A 50bp Cut In July is Unlikely - CIBC
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 11 - 08:47 AM

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's US CPI report for the month of June.

"Will Fed Powell look past a 0.3% core CPI in June, which matched CIBC's forecast, but was above virtually unanimous expectations for a tick or two lower? Probably. The headline increase of 0.1% was also above consensus, but has the overall CPI standing at 1.6% (vs 1.8% the prior month), while core CPI's uptick to 2.1% (from 2.0%) will still have the Fed's preferred measured, the core PCE index, running a few ticks below the 2% target.

While the Fed has spoken about the risks of a more persistent downside miss to its inflation target as a reason to ease, we believe those risks are tied to their worry that a sustained growth slump is coming, and doesn't rest as much on the existing gap between inflation and the 2% target," CIBC notes. 

"As a result, Powell's fairly clear leaning to cutting rates now (from yesterday's testimony) still signals a quarter point cut this month, with today's firmer core reading just one more reason why a 50 bp cut in July is much more unlikely," CIBC adds. 

CIBC Research/Market Commentary


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