Goldman Sachs Research previews the NZ elections on Nov-7.

"New Zealand’s 7 November election appears too close to call. Our Monte Carlo simulations of recent polling lean slightly towards a Labour-led outcome, while prediction markets slightly favour a continuation of the current National-led government. Polling and prediction markets suggest neither major party will achieve a standalone majority, so coalition and confidence-and-supply negotiations will be decisive. As a result, minor parties will likely have greater influence over the policy mix of any future government," GS notes.

"In the very near term, our base case is that NZ’s political backdrop is neutral for the RBNZ. With the vote so close, government formation could take several weeks, and a new government is unlikely to be formed until after the RBNZ’s 9 December meeting," GS adds.