Synopsis:

Morgan Stanley projects a mixed outcome for the US August jobs report, anticipating a partial rebound from July’s figures, with improvements in payrolls and slight changes in unemployment and earnings.

Key Points:

1. Payrolls:

   • Forecast: +185,000 jobs added
   • Context: Expecting a partial reversal of July's weakness, which was attributed to weather effects, noise, and slowing labor demand.

2. Unemployment Rate:

   • Forecast: -0.1 percentage points to 4.2%
   • Context: A decrease reflecting an expected improvement in the labor market.

3. Workweek:

   • Forecast: +0.1 hour to 34.3 hours
   • Context: Anticipated increase suggesting better labor market conditions.

4. Average Hourly Earnings:

   • Forecast: +0.3% month-over-month
   • Context: Indicates a modest rise in earnings, aligning with overall positive expectations for the report.

Conclusion:

Morgan Stanley expects the August jobs report to show moderate improvements compared to July, with increases in payrolls, a lower unemployment rate, and higher average hourly earnings. These changes are anticipated to reflect a partial recovery from July's anomalies and ongoing labor market trends.