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Feb 07 - 01:55 PM

EUR/USD - Buy Or Sell US Exceptionalism Remains The Question For EUR/USD

By Christopher Romano  —  Feb 07 - 11:57 AM

Feb 7 (Reuters) - EUR/USD has been gravitating toward the 1.0350 level since mid-November, and its resilience to momentary spikes lower on major concerns such as U.S. tariffs suggests the market might be reluctant to buy into endless U.S. exceptionalism. How the market digests, in coming sessions, Friday's mixed U.S. non-farm payrolls report -- which showed a downside surprise to payrolls combined with upward adjustments to previous months and an unexpectedly low unemployment rate -- will provide key clues to investors' thinking. EUR/USD initially struggled for direction after the data, suggesting the market may be awaiting employment reports in coming months to better evaluate the state of the labor market considering changes announced so far by U.S. President Donald Trump, including buyout offers for most government workers, plans to reduce the size of the federal workforce and other actions with the potential to affect employment. Markets will likely see future employment data as key to determining whether the Fed will deliver the additional rate cuts currently expected or decide to ease even further. If slower job growth does emerge, it could erode the dollar's yield advantage over the euro as terminal rate spreads for the Fed and ECB tighten and German-U.S. 2-year yield spreads narrow.

In a weaker U.S. employment scenario, investors expecting EUR/USD to fall towards parity could be disappointed and may have to cover short positions. U.S. weekly jobless claims data may take on added significance for market participants due to its frequency.
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(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters

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