Explore eFXplus Derived Data That Drive Results
A Data Partner of:
May 17 - 12:55 AM

TD: Strategy to Fade Recent Currency Rallies Against USD

By eFXdata  —  May 16 - 04:30 PM


TD Securities outlines its strategic perspective on the USD's trajectory, recommending fading the recent rallies of EUR, GBP, CAD, and CHF against the USD due to a divergence in inflation and growth expectations between the US and G10 countries.

Key Points:

  • Short-Term Outlook: In the immediate weeks ahead, short-term factors such as positioning and historical fair value (HFFV) indicate potential USD downside.
  • Medium-Term Bullishness on USD: Over the next 3-6 months, TD foresees strengthening USD as inflation divergence between the US and G10 becomes more pronounced, despite global growth starting to show signs of convergence.
  • Growth and Inflation Dynamics: While global growth revisions are showing convergence, inflation in the US remains distinctively higher compared to G10, suggesting less likelihood of a synchronized monetary policy easing.
  • Currency Strategy: TD advises strategically positioning for a stronger USD by fading the recent appreciations in EUR, GBP, CAD, and CHF, which they view as temporary and misaligned with broader economic indicators.


TD's analysis supports a bullish outlook for the USD in the medium term based on sustained inflation differentials and recommends capitalizing on recent counter-trend moves in other major currencies.

TD Bank Research/Market Commentary


  • eFXplus
  • End-user license agreement (EULA)


  • About
  • Contact Us


  • Terms of Service
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
© 2024 eFXdata · All Rights Reserved