Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs anticipates a 165k increase in payrolls for September, surpassing the consensus estimate of 146k, with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 4.2%.

Key Points:

• The forecast indicates stronger job growth in September, and a revision upward for August payrolls is likely, reflecting a typical pattern of adjustments seen over the past decade.
• The unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2% suggests stability in the labor market, driven by a flat labor force participation rate and positive household employment growth.
• Average hourly earnings are estimated to rise by 0.2% in September, leading to an annual increase of 3.7%, despite some modestly negative calendar effects.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs' projections indicate a robust labor market performance, with payroll growth expected to exceed consensus expectations and stability in the unemployment rate. The anticipated upward revisions to August data suggest a resilient employment landscape heading into September.