Barclays Research discusses its expectations for this week's FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday.
"We expect the FOMC to deliver a 25bp cut to its policy rate in September, reducing the target range for the policy rate to 1.75-2.00%. We look for only minor changes relative to the July statement, with the committee reiterating that the baseline outlook still calls for sustained expansion and inflation near the symmetric 2% objective, but noting its decision to make another adjustment to its policy rate “in light of … global developments … and muted inflation pressures”.
We also expect similar forward guidance, retaining the committee’s pledge to “act as appropriate” as it contemplates future changes to the path of the funds rate. With measures of activity and inflation having played out broadly in line with expectations since June, and with fundamentals only slightly less supportive, on balance, we look for only minor changes to the median projections for inflation, unemployment and GDP in 2019 and 2020," Barclays projects.
"We expect the dot plot to show no additional cuts to the policy rate through 2020 (on top of the two cuts we expect to be implemented through September), with four or five participants showing one additional cut this year or next, and policy rates returning to just below the median neutral rate (2.5) in 2021," Barclays adds.