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Feb 15 - 09:55 PM

AUD/USD - COMMENT-AUD/USD Poised To Rise Despite RBA Misgivings

By John Noonan  —  Feb 15 - 08:20 PM

The AUD/USD appears poised to take out the Jan 6 trend high at 0.7819 as the market prices in a strong global economic recovery and sells countercyclical currencies such as the USD and JPY nL1N2KL10W, ignoring indications that the Reserve Bank of Australia is uneasy with a stronger currency.

The RBA's February meeting minutes noted that a decision not to extend their bond buying programme would have put "significant" upward pressure on the Australian dollar nRUAFDEH95.

Strong commodity prices and buoyant risk assets are making the Australian dollar particularly attractive for sellers of the greenback and the AUD upward pressure looks set to continue in the short term at least nL1N2KL0IU.

A clear AUD/USD break above 0.7820 would put the psychological 0.8000 level into focus.
The next level of significant resistance isn't found until the January 2018 high at 0.8135. Conversely, a break below the ascending 10-day moving average at 0.7714 would indicate waning momentum and damage the short-term bullish outlook.

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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