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Jul 23 - 02:36 PM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-Euro Enters Flash-Crash Void Vs Yen, But EUR/USD Is Key
First appeared on eFXplus on Jul 23 - 12:25 PM

EUR/JPY has broken below its June and prior July 120.79/78 lows, with no historical support to speak of until January's 117.85 flash-crash session low, though downside may be limited by EUR/USD's much nearer 2019 lows.
EUR/JPY's drop looks odd on a day when most major stock markets are posting decent gains, but confirmation that Boris Johnson will become the next UK PM seems to be weighing down euro zone rates.
Ten-year bund yields are drifting toward this month's historical low of -40.9bp.
Ten-year JGBs yields are also heavy, but at -14.4bp they're in no immediate danger of retesting the -19bp June nadir near the BOJ's -20bp yield curve control low limit.
Ten-year Bund-JGB yield spreads at -21bp remain above the recent multi-year low of -24.5bp and BTP-bund 10-year spreads are a shade tighter today, so EUR/JPY's weakness looks mostly like spillover from the EUR/USD's current 0.5% fall.
EUR/USD is near its lower 30-day Bolli support at 1.1145, and may get a brief bounce there, but this year's lows near 1.1100 could be in jeopardy if the ECB's easing plans undermine the currency.

Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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