• Nobody expects the BoJ to hike rates on Wednesday and options concur

• Overnight USD/JPY implied volatility 16.5 from 14.0 since including BoJ

• Premium/break-even now 100 JPY pips from 87 JPY pips in either direction

• If BoJ were to hike, USD/JPY would plunge much more than 100 JPY pips

• Broader implied volatility has reversed recent gains - USD/JPY included

• Benchmark 1-month expiry has fully retraced Feb 21-11 March 10.0-12.4 gains

• Downside over upside strike premiums on risk reversals much lower, too

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(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)