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Oct 08 - 07:24 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Can Reach 1.11, But Don't Bet On A Bigger Recovery
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 08 - 05:40 AM

Societe Generale's Kit Juckes notes the potential for EUR/USD to retest 1.1100 but says the foundations for a more meaningful move just aren't there.
Option markets reinforce that view right now - charging a tiny vol premium to cover potential upside risk, but betting on the recent ranges being sustained by selling volatility nL2N26T040.
Juckes notes that while EUR/USD is exceptionally low in real terms, that's only half of a valuation story, since the euro isn't nearly as cheap in trade-weighted terms.
In other words, the euro's not cheap, but the dollar is expensive.
So a turn higher in EUR/USD probably can't happen on European news alone and needs a broad-based dollar setback.
Good news on U.S./China trade talks and on Brexit would help, given that CNH and GBP are dominant currencies in the euro's trade-weighted basket.


EUR=EBS: Click here

EUR/USD impled vols: Click here

EUR/USD risk reversals: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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