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Oct 24 - 11:55 PM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-Economic Policies The Trigger For A Sterling Breakout

By Andrew M Spencer  —  Oct 24 - 10:35 PM

Sterling has been in a 1.0925-1.1493 range since late September.
The market response to Rishi Sunak's economic policies will likely trigger a breakout.

Sunak becomes Prime Minister amid an impending UK recession.
The Ukraine war, EU/UK tensions surrounding Brexit, and the Northern Ireland protocol multiply Sunak's problems.

Sunak has not released any firm policies, but is expected to announce spending cuts and tax increases.
Various members of the Conservative party prioritize differently a broad range of economic and political ideologies, so whatever he announces, there will be dissent.

Interest rate differentials are key for currencies, and upcoming events suggest GBP/USD yield spreads should not change dramatically, unless the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England surprise with a dovish outlook.

The Bank of England will take the steps needed to get inflation back to target; BOEWATCH prices a 75 basis point hike to 3.00% on November 3rd at 69.53% and a 100 bps hike at 30.47%.
This follows the Federal Reserve rate decision on November 2nd; a 75 bps hike is priced at 95.5% by CME FedWatch.

Technically, daily momentum studies climb; the 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages edge north - a modest positive setup below major resistance.
The 1.1440-1.1540 span contains recent highs and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the August-September fall.
The 1.0925 October low is pivotal support.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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