TD Research discusses the USD outlook in light of this week's September policy decision.
"We think the Fed's shift to a faster taper pace plus early November start will likely diminish the USD's downside risks through the later parts of 2022. In other words, the USD probably doesn't have as much downside as we anticipated, yet the next likely move through late 2021 and early 2022 is lower. A shift in the 2s10s curve that marks the anticipation of the first rate hike will likely mark the bottom," TD notes.
"Given our call for a Fed hike in late 2023, that probably won't be seen until late Q2/early Q3 next year. Behind the scenes lies the outlook for the global economy, which is arguably more important than the Fed over the next three to six months. The result is that the USD will likely make another run lower, probably revisiting levels near the lows seen in May. A light form of reflation and mispriced themes would offer the spark," TD adds.