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May 18 - 01:55 PM

USD/JPY - Well Clear Of 2023'S Prior Peaks As Fed Rate Cut Pricing Retreats

By Randolph Donney  —  May 18 - 12:55 PM
  • USD/JPY cleared 2023's peaks by 138 as Fed cuts seen less likely

  • Roughly 61.8% of the H2 rate cuts priced in after bank crisis now erased

  • Also now a slightly higher, but still low, probability of a June rate hike

  • Big jobless claims drop, with prior rise mostly due to fraud, lifts Tsy ylds

  • Tsy ylds & USD support also boosted by waning US default and banking angst

  • A much less negative than f/c May Philly Fed report a plus as well

  • Breakout past May/March 137.78/90 highs now eyes key a 50% Fibo at 139.58

  • Prices are bumping into daily ATR resistance by 138.70, +0.6% intraday

  • That as 2-yr Tsy yields have run into resistance by April's highs

  • Japan CPI out Fri could lift BoJ policy shift hopes, but probably not much

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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