• AUD rally will likely struggle to hold

• While AUD was helped by the surge in risk assets after tariff pause

• Bottom line is that China tariffs of 125% are still in effect

• This will still be a drag on Chinese and global growth

• As the dust settles in stocks, pulbacks are likely to weigh on AUD

• While question marks remain on USD - upside is best expressed against AUD

• 0.62 has capped the AUD/USD rebound

• Further resistance = 0.6390 (Apr 3 high). But is a stretch too far

• Door open for a move back to the pre-tariff pause level at 0.6021
AUDUSD hourly chart

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)