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Aug 06 - 10:55 AM

Credit Agricole: Yen Intervention Against The Odds...Again

By eFXdata  —  Aug 06 - 09:43 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the latest wave of yen buying intervention.

"Relative to the 1998 and 2011 joint interventions, the misvaluations in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are less extreme currently, so the present joint intervention has started from a weaker point. The effects of the joint interventions in 1998 and 2011 faded after a few months as fundamentals took back control of FX markets. Likewise, if the fundamentals do not shift for the JPY, its current intervention gains could also fade," CACIB notes.

 "Without Japan’s leveraging of USTs, the combined US-Japanese reserves available for intervention represent less than three-quarters of the daily turnover in spot JPY, well below the levels of 1998 and 2011. With Japan making use of its USTs, this ratio rises to a more substantial 2.7 times, more than 1998 but still slightly less than 2011...We continue to forecast USD/JPY to average 162 in Q3 and 163 in Q4," CACIB adds.

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
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