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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
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AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
Nov 19 - 08:36 PM
USD/JPY - Trades Soft, Looking For A Decisive Risk Move
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 06:25 PM
  • -0.1% after closing off 0.1%, led by a fall in long end UST yields

  • Trades lead data - polls exports -7.6%, imports -16%, balance 301.0B

  • Little lead from Wall Street, data unlikely to impact - range trading

  • Horizontal Tenkan and Kijun lines do not suggest a trending move

  • Rising daily cloud for the next few week may provide underlying support

  • Major resistance at 109.35/50, 61.8% 2019 fall and the November high

  • 108.00 410M, 108.15-30 700M, 108.50-60 700M and 108.75 250M close strikes

jpy nov 20 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 05:00 PM
GBP/USD: Scope For A Setback Ahead Of Elections Reduced But Not Eliminated - MUFG
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 01:00 PM

MUFG Research discusses GBP/USD outlook ahead of the UK Dec-12 General Elections. MUFG is short GBP/USD* targeting a move towards 1.2600.

"The likelihood of the GBP suffering a setback in the run up to the election has now been reduced although certainly not eliminated. It will still be difficult for cable to break above 1.3000 until there is more clarity. Public opinion polls would need to shift decisively to trigger a more volatile GBP. It has not happened yet broadly, although we note Britain Elects Poll Tracker shows the gap closing," MUFG adds. 

"Downside risks for GBP would increase if the gap starts to narrow across a wider number of polls, which would increase political uncertainty. It would open up GBP more to weakness coming through from the UK economy. Key support for cable is located at 1.2800, and then at 1.2700, the 200-day moving average," MUFG adds. 

--

*Recorded in eFXplus Orders

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 03:48 PM
AUD/USD - Greenback Sales Trump RBA's Effect
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 01:35 PM
  • Despite upbeat US housing data US$ selling is the theme in NY

  • AUD/USD rallies in NY and adds to gains from Europe's morning nL2N27Z0G0

  • Rally stalls just short of 10-DMA and Nov. 14 high, little pull back seen

  • Cloud top supports, daily bull hammer forms, RSI rises, techs favor longs

  • Effect of RBA minutes short-lived, shorts concerns grow nL2N27Z0QT

  • Break above 0.6840/65 is likely to drive test of 200-DMA & October high








chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 02:36 PM
USD/JPY - Heavy On Trump's Tough Trade Tone, Testing Yield Support
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 12:50 PM
  • Trump says China has to make a trade deal, tariffs up if not nW1N26M02Q

  • Comes after Bloomberg story deal depends on cuts in tariffs since May

  • USD/JPY below Monday's 108.51 low following falling Treasury yields

  • 10-yr Tsy yields probing 100-DMA & up TL off Oct-Nov lows by 1.78%

  • A break and close below would signal bigger risk-off fall in USD/JPY

  • Pair's already top-heavy, uptrend from Aug at risk below 107.99/89 props

  • Bulls need a trade deal and 109.49+ close to take control again

Chart: Click here

Chart: Click here

Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 01:24 PM
USD: Risk Of A USD Spike Into Year-End On A Sharp Rise In Net USD Demand - Citi
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 11:20 AM

Citi flags a risk of a sharp rise in net USD demand over coming weeks, which may result in rising USD liquidity premiums and a subsequent spike in USD against its counterparts.

"Investor focus shifts to the prospect for a potential broad based tightening in the year-end USD liquidity premium following the NY Fed’s update on its money market operations schedule. More recently after September end, USD liquidity premiums have been shrinking on expectations that the Fed will likely be able to adequately supply USD funding to year-end," Citi notes. 

"However, major bank money market desks in NY are anticipating a sharp rise in net USD demand over coming weeks to year-end and the investor focus is turning on whether the NY Fed’s schedule may be enough to cater for the anticipated demand. Should the Fed fall short, this may result in rising USD liquidity premiums thereby leading to a spike in USD in the FX space," Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 12:12 PM
GBP/USD - COMMENT-Sterling Bulls Struggle Against Options Market
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 10:30 AM

GBP/USD bulls have plenty going in their favor -- including a rare bout of certainty over UK politics and -- but they can't count on help from the options market at the moment. Cable has drifted down 0.1% to 1.2940, away from its Oct. 21 trend high of 1.3012 as some of the bullish momentum of a Tory victory -- and Brexit clarity that goes with it -- in the upcoming election ebbs.
While sterling hovers near the top of its recent range, option interest indicates further gains, at least in the near-term, will likely be capped nL2N27Z0I3.
One-month volatility, which includes the Dec. 12 election, has been leveling off near 11.5% GBP1MO=.
Additionally, large GBP/USD option expiries for Thursday and Friday by 1.2900 and 1.3000, Click here , are likely to anchor spot near current levels. Still, with the Tory poll advantage trickling higher, attention is on the upside and GBP support appears firm at the rising 30-DMA by 1.2877 and the 200-DMA by 1.2703.
A close above the weekly cloud, which spans 1.2941-1.2886, would add to bullish sentiment and put 100 and 200-DMA resistance at 1.3063 and 1.3117 in sharper focus.
A rise above 1.3168, the 50% Fib of April 2018 to September 2019 dip will give bulls the advantage, opening the way for a run to March 2019 highs by 1.3380.


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 09:48 AM
GBP/USD: Debate On Tap; 1.3185 Likely To Cap Ahead Of Dec-12 Elections - TD
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 08:28 AM

TD Research discusses GBP tactical outlook ahead of the Dec-12 UK General Elections.

"Across the Channel, the focus remains very much on UK domestic politics as PM Johnson is set to debate the opposition leader on Tuesday. Press reports indicate Labour will release its campaign "manifesto" Thursday with the Conservatives doing the same the following day," TD adds 

"Ahead of this, some polls point to a widening lead by the Conservatives. We think GBP/USD breaking higher looks likely. An initial target for a move higher would be 1.3120, but we continue to think that 1.3185 should cap rallies ahead of the UK general election," TD adds. 

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 08:36 AM
AUD/USD - Tests Monday High After Rising From RBA-Spurred Low
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 06:00 AM
  • AUD/USD tests 0.6823 (Monday's high) after extending north from 0.6785

  • 0.6785 was the Asian session low after dovish RBA minutes nL3N27Z0UC

  • Risk-sensitive AUD is benefitting from hope of a US-China trade deal

  • Hang Seng's 1.6% rise positive for AUD too nAZN18JR00nL8N27Z1V9

  • 0.6841 (Nov 14 high, before drop to 0.6770) is an obstacle beyond 0.6823

  • AUD/USD notched its Nov 14 high before weak Australian employment data

AUDUSD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 07:24 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Shorts In Growing Danger Of Being Squeezed
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 05:55 AM

On Monday, EUR/USD rose to register a daily close above the Ichimoku cloud top, which remains at 1.1064, increasing the risk of a short squeeze in coming sessions.
In the week ended Nov.
12, IMM data showed the futures market was short by an equivalent EUR/USD cash position of 7.2 billion euros, down from 7.6 billion euros the previous week.
However, EBS flow data since Nov.
12 shows some of those shorts may have been re-established, increasing the chances of a near-term short squeeze because there are more buy stops around that might be triggered.
If EUR/USD bulls force a daily close above the kijun line, at 1.1085, that will further increase the likelihood for more gains to retest the October 1.1180 peak.
EUR/USD direction is at the mercy of the Federal Reserve FOMC's October minutes due out on Wednesday and Friday's release of flash euro zone PMIs nL1N27Y00C.
Related nL2N27Y00K


EBS Flow Data Chart: Click here

IMM Positions Chart: Click here

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 06:12 AM
USD/JPY - Bulls Rebuild As U.S.-China Deal News Still Awaited
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 04:10 AM

Corrected IMM date

  • FX traders still await news about a U.S.-China "phase one" deal

  • USD/JPY has seen a 108.47-108.75 range, according to prices on the EBS

  • Bulls rebuild, need close above tenkan to tighten grip nL2N27Z060

  • Tenkan line at 108.86, a close above would unmask the Nov 109.49 peak

  • Larger NY cut expiries: 108.30-35 (1.1B), 108.50-55 (1B), 108.90-109.00 (1B)

  • EUR/JPY's correlation with USD/JPY high, 30/60-day logs are +0.73/+0.65

  • Kuroda denies saying BOJ has unlimited tools to ease policy nT9N27700P

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD's Close Above Cloud Top Increases The Odds Of A Squeeze
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 03:05 AM
  • Mon's close above cloud top, at 1.1064, increases odds of a squeeze higher

  • EUR/USD bulls now need to force a close above the kijun line at 1.1085

  • That would strengthen the scope for a test the October 1.1180 peak

  • Looking to get long on dips to 1.1065, ahead of tenkan line at 1.1040

  • "Bear trap" and the daily cloud top nL1N27Y04T

  • A simple way to position for a EUR/USD cloud breakout nL2N27V07H

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 03:48 AM
GBP/USD - FX Traders Battle It Out At Trend Resistance Line
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 02:00 AM
  • Bulls in control despite failing to record a close above daily channel top

  • Early Tues and another run above the shallow bear channel top at 1.2947

  • Need to see a close above resistance line to open up key 1.3012 Oct 21 peak

  • Weekly cloud breach holding but action is tight: 100-200WMAs overhead

  • Close back inside or below cloud bearish: cloud parameters 1.2886-1.2941

  • We stand aside for now but might minitor price on any test of 1.3012









GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart: Click here

GBP/USD Weekly Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 02:36 AM
EUR/USD - Sideways In Asia Ahead Of Decent Resistance
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 10:25 PM
  • EUR/USD traded in a 1.0762/74 range in a quiet Asian session

  • Heading into the afternoon it is unchanged at 1.0772

  • Short-covering has EUR/USD trending higher in recent days as US yields ease

  • Resistance found at the 100-day MA @ 1.1092 & 61.8 0f 1.1180/1.0989 @ 1.1107

  • Support comes in at 1.1040 where the 10 and 55-day MAs converge

  • Lack of data today so news on US-China trade talks will dictate direction






eur/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 19 - 12:12 AM
GBP/USD - Johnson-Corbyn Debate A Potential Range Break Trigger
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 10:10 PM
  • Flat with early flows in a tight 1.2946/1.2954 range, EUR/GBP flat at 0.8547

  • Tuesday's Johnson-Corbyn debate potential major event risk nL2N27Z007

  • Charts - momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict - neutral setup

  • After forming a touch lower 1.2770 range base, 1.3012 top in view

  • Sustained 1.3012 break would open the door to 1.3168, 50% of 2018-19 fall.

  • London 1.2922/1.2985 range is initial support/resistance

gbp2 nov 19 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 18 - 11:00 PM
GBP/USD - COMMENT-Sterling Looks Healthy Into Johnson-Corbyn Debate
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 08:05 PM

Having extended the October-November range base by 20 pips on Nov 8, GBP/USD now finds the 1.3012 October high and five-week range top under pressure.
The bounce, with higher daily lows each day, has been largely driven by positive polls for PM Johnson's government, which continued over the weekend nL5N27W0GZ.
The Click here had the Conservatives at 41% and Labour 29% at Monday's close, ahead of the party leaders' election debate at 8pm Tuesday in London.
Johnson prepared for the encounter by ditching plans to cut corporate tax, using the money to boost National Health spending to similar levels to those of the Labour Party nL8N27Y2N1.
Johnson is a charismatic speaker, but can be error-prone, while Labour's Corbyn often struggles to communicate to those not committed to his left-wing vision nL4N27V36B.
The debate has the potential to spark volatility.
A stalemate would probably result in the government maintaining its lead in the polls and a firmer GBP.
Corbyn needs to turn the tide or Boris to implode, for the polls to significantly change and hit sterling hard. A test of the 1.3012 range top looks viable.
A close above would open the door to 1.3168, 50% of the 2018-2019 fall.


gbp2 nov 19 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 18 - 09:48 PM
AUD/USD - Eases Slightly After Dovish RBA Minutes
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 07:40 PM
  • AUD/USD eased to 0.6790 from 0.6805 after release of RBA Minutes nRUAIMEF7C

  • Market reacting to RBA saying there was a case for a November easing

  • Sombre outlook on wages and growth in Minutes also weighs

  • Market pricing in 28% chance of Dec rate cut and 60% chance of Feb cut

  • AUD/USD support at 61.8 of 0.6670/0.6929 move at 0.6769

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 18 - 08:36 PM
GBP/USD - Range Top In View Ahead Of Johnson-Corbyn Debate
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 06:20 PM
  • Flat after closing up 0.4%, as Conservatives extend poll lead nL5N27W0GZ

  • Johnson ditched corporation tax cut for NHS spending pledge nL8N27Y2N1

  • Tuesday's Johnson/Corbyn election debate potential significant event risk

  • Charts - momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict - neutral setup

  • After forming a touch lower 1.2770 range base, October top in view

  • Six days of higher daily lows targets 1.3012 Oct/Nov range top

  • London 1.2922/1.2985 range is initial support/resistance

gbp nov 19 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 18 - 05:00 PM
USD: Expecting A Generally Hawkish Tone From This Week's FOMC Minutes - BofAML
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 03:05 PM

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research discusses its expectations for this week's FOMC minutes. 

"The minutes of the November FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. We expect a generally hawkish tone as FOMC officials agree that the current stance of policy is sufficiently accommodative. The airwaves have recently been filled with comments from Fed officials, including from Fed Chair Powell's testimony to Congress. The Fed believes that rates have been cut enough to provide a cushion against negative shocks," BofAML projects. 

"We suspect that there will be a discussion in the minutes of whether the Fed has cut too much. Either way it will be clear that the majority of Fed officials think that policy is supportive. They will likely reiterate the message that there would need to be a "material reassessment" of the outlook in order to adjust rates in either direction. We may get a bit more perspective from the minutes on what constitutes such a change of view. In addition to the discussion about rates and the risks to the economy, we think Fed officials will also talk about the concerns over the implementation of policy, including the optimal size of the balance sheet," BofAML adds.

Source:
BofA Merrill Lynch Research/Market Commentary
Nov 18 - 03:48 PM
AUD/USD - Trade Concerns Brushed-Off, Shorts Are Nervous
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 01:25 PM
  • Risk-off leads to sharp dive lower in early NY after quiet European morning

  • CNBC report increases concerns US-Sino trade talks in trouble nL2N27Y07F

  • Safe-haven yen bought, AUD/JPY nears 73.90, AUD/USD dips below 0.6800

  • US yields stay heavy, US$ broadly sold, AUD/USD rebounds, 0.6825 neared

  • Pair above 55-DMA, long lower wick on daily candle; daily techs warn shorts

  • Longs need break above 0.6840/65 zone in order to take greater control

  • Panel discussion with RBA's Kent, RBA's November minutes are risks in Asia


chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Nov 18 - 02:36 PM
USD/JPY - Facing Trade Deal And Possible Fed Headwinds
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 18 - 01:20 PM
  • USD/JPY and crosses knocked down by trade deal doubts nL2N27Y07U

  • In a 109.07-8.51 range & flirting with a sub-kijun (108.69) close

  • November pullbacks so far unable to close below the kijun line

  • Rare Trump-Powell-Mnuchin meeting at WH raises eyebrows nL2N27Y0HM

  • Trump talking rate cuts, negative rates, too strong Dollar

  • Powell sticking to data-dependent drive to meet Fed mandates

  • Fed and USD/JPY longs may need more insurance nL2N27Y0HZ

  • Large options expiries at 107.95-8.50 guard recent 108+ IMM spec longs

  • If trade talks fall apart, the 104.46-9.49 will be retraced

Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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