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Oct 25 - 02:55 PM

USD: A pivot Point, Dash For Cash, And CBs Breaking Stuff; Stay Long USD Into Year-End -TD

By eFXdata  —  Oct 25 - 01:30 PM

TD Research maintains a bullish bias on the USD into year-end.

"The question on most investors' minds is when will the USD peak and what are the catalysts? Most importantly, a peak in the USD will require a shift in global growth and a pause in Fed terminal rate pricing (we're at 5%). While a Fed shift could stall the rally, a nadir in the global growth outlook is likely a more crucial signal to start leaning against the USD," TD notes. 

"There are some early signs of stagflation risk peaking, but we think it will take a bit more pain before moving on to a new set of themes. We don't expect Plaza 2.0 to reverse the USD, while sporadic FX intervention, ironically, works in its favor...Stay long the USD," TD adds. 

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary

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