Synopsis:

RBC’s technical analysis maintains a bearish bias on USD/CAD, with recent consolidation pointing to lower levels unless key support levels hold. Any rebound into the 1.4000–1.4100 range is expected to face renewed selling pressure.

Key Points:

• Support Levels in Focus:

  • Price action has stalled around 1.3822, the November low, with a hammer candle pattern suggesting temporary support.

  • A clean break below 1.3822 would nullify the bullish reversal signal and shift focus to the next support at 1.3747, then 1.3647, and 1.3540.

• Resistance Levels Established:

  • Initial resistance now sits at the short-term trendline near 1.3913.

  • Further resistance lies at 1.4011 and 1.4106, which are near the top of the expected corrective rebound range.

• Trend Confirmation:

  • The April 3 break below the February low (1.4151) confirmed a technical top, suggesting a new, lower trading range for USD/CAD.

Conclusion:

RBC expects any rallies toward the 1.4000–1.4100 zone to encounter heavy selling, reinforcing a bearish technical stance unless support at 1.3822 holds convincingly. A decisive move below this level could accelerate the decline.