Citi Research discusses the USD outlook and likes to trade it tactically in the near-term.

"We think you chase USD for a trade, but don't overstay. We forecast EURUSD at 1.13 over the 0-3 month horizon (this is what we expect it can average over the forecast window), but with a asymmetric skew towards lower and potential to touch 1.10 (we would consider this more of a trade target where we would take profit)." Citi notes.

"As a reminder, we maintain our 9m EURUSD 1.14/1.10 put spread that we entered at the start of the year (spot ref 1.1352)," Citi adds.

AUD/USD edged higher Monday, though long-positioned investors remain cautious as the pair hovers near critical support levels ahead of a busy week of U.S. employment data.

The pair is currently consolidating after dropping from its June 15 high — a bearish signal on its own — with that consolidation forming just above the key 0.6834–0.6861 support zone, which contains the 200-day moving average alongside the March and April monthly lows.

The technical picture offers little comfort for bulls. AUD/USD is trading below both the falling 10- and 21-day moving averages, and the monthly RSI points to entrenched longer-term downward momentum.

All eyes now turn to a string of U.S. labor market releases. May JOLTS job openings drop Tuesday, followed by June ADP on Wednesday, and the June payrolls report on Thursday — moved up due to the July 4th holiday on Friday. These reports will be pivotal in shaping the pair's near-term direction.

AUD/USD bulls are counting on softer jobs numbers, which could prompt markets to scale back expectations for Fed hawkishness. That would likely push U.S. yields and SOFR futures rates lower, weighing broadly on the dollar and potentially driving AUD/USD up toward the June high of 0.7190.

Conversely, a strong jobs print would reinforce dollar strength and could send the pair sliding toward the 0.6600 level.
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research previews this week's US jobs report for the month of June.

"After three solid months, we expect Jun payrolls to also rise by a robust 110k (private: 120k), supported by benign claims and strong ADP data. That said, we see downside risks: May's surge in leisure & hospitality may have been driven by the World Cup or Memorial Day timing, and if it was the latter, Jun could see payback. We could also see a large reversal in local gov't jobs after May's outsized gain. We expect the u-rate to remain at 4.3%, though continued strength in HH employment could push it down to 4.2%," BofA notes.

"A strong report would likely move markets closer to our call for three hikes in '26," BofA adds.

Sterling's near-term path looks better supported than it has in weeks, with cooling geopolitical risk, steadier UK politics and a potentially softer Fed path forming a constructive backdrop for the pound. The pound continued its steady ascent on Monday, rising 0.2% in early North American trading as cable benefited from a cooling geopolitical environment—notably easing U.S.-Iran tensions—and a less-charged UK political climate following Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation. Domestic fiscal anxieties are also abating after Andy Burnham committed to existing UK fiscal rules, a move that supports the recent decline in 10-year gilt yields down to 4.72% from their pre-resignation peaks near 5.2%.

With political and fiscal tumult settling, market focus is pivoting back to monetary policy, making this week’s U.S. payroll data highly scrutinized for near-term Fed clues. While the dollar recently gained ground on expectations of a hawkish Fed in H2 2026, a sharp drop in oil prices could temper inflation expectations and revive a more dovish outlook.

Given the deeply stretched sterling short positioning, a calmer UK outlook paired with a softer Fed could trigger an aggressive short-unwinding surge, driving GBP/USD past its initial technical hurdle at the 10-day moving average near 1.3243. Should this momentum clear Monday's 1.3240 high, bulls will confidently target the 200-DMA and daily cloud base near 1.3400, while solid support remains firmly anchored down at Monday's low of 1.3194 and the crucial June 24 trend low of 1.3140.
GBP Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research discusses JPY outlook and the scope for another round of JPY intervention by Japan's MoF.

"This past week saw USD/JPY trade up close to 162, its highest level since July 2024, when the MoF subsequently intervened..Even with the risk of additional intervention still elevated, the risk that markets continue to press a more hawkish Fed leaves JPY funding relatively more attractive than before. Because as long as Fed expectations are shifting, JPY should be a lower vol funder than the other low-yielders; it tends to have a more muted response when equities and yields are moving in opposite directions," GS notes.

"Overall, a backdrop of higher US yields, low recession odds, as well as lingering domestic fiscal risks alongside only gradual BoJ hikes (which reportedly will come with even greater resistance from the administration than before, given its plan to call for the BoJ to help bolster demand) means that the upward pressure on USD/JPY should persist- as long as policymakers allow it," GS adds

• AUD/USD traded 0.6882-0.6904 overnight, NY opened near 0.6900, up +0.16%

• Broad based USD selling, lower US yields , USD/CNH buoyed the pair

• AUD/USD rallied despite drops in gold , silver

& copper

• The pair remained within Friday's daily range and above hte 200-DMA

• AUD/USD is consolidating the drop from the June 15 high; a bearisd signal

• Daily RSI will get a chance to unwind its oversold conditions during consolidation
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/CAD broadly flat, but sustained trade sub-1.4200 keeps near-term bias skewed lower

• 200-hour MA cluster at 1.4140–65 in focus, further support at 1.4140

• Clean break below needed to validate downside momentum and extend pullback

• Event risk elevated into July 1 USMCA deadline, so headline sensitivty remains high

• Any headlines pointing to a USMCA exit could see USD/CAD reverse sharply higher

• Spot would likely take out the recent highs ~1.4250 and push for a move to 1.45
USDCAD


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• EUR/CHF consolidating after failure to hold a clean break above the 200DMA cluster

• Rallies capped into 0.9250–66 (Apr–May highs) with limited follow-through

• CHF still screens as a preferred funding currency, reinforcing downside pressure via carry dynamics

• Funding narrative could limit pullbacks in the cross near-term

• Swiss CPI (Thu) on the docket, softer print would validate CHF funding bias and weigh further

• Near-term support at 0.9200, clean break would open up a deeper move toward 0.9100 zone
EURCHF daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• EUR/USD consolidates around 1.1400 after its recovery from 1-year lows at 1.1325 to 1.1443 last week

• Massive nearby FX option expiries and related hedging flows could help contain into Thursdays US NFP release

• There are 2.6 billion euros 1.1385-1.1400 Monday, 5.5 billion 1.1400-20 Tuesday, 2.4 billion at 1.1400 Thursday

• Close below 1.1335 - 38.2% Fibo retrace of 1.0125-1.2084 rise opens 1.1300 barriers and 50% at 1.1105

• 1.1449 is key to the topside - 23.6% Fibo retrace of April-June 1.1849-1.1325 drop - close above can relieve pressure

• FX option implied volatility and its downside over upside strike premiums off highs for now - downside pressure easing

• Related - Month-end flows favour USD - Deutsche says fade. US/Iran update: Hormuz holds - for now
EUR/USD daily chart (EBS)


EUR/USD FX option strike expiries June 29-July 3


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises to 1.3225 intra-day high in early London trade

• 1.3225 is seven pips shy of Friday's peak (highest level since June 23)

• CFTC data: net GBP short rose to highest since March 2017 in week to June 23

• Week to June 23 included UK PM Keir Starmer's resignation speech

• Andy Burnham is set to replace Starmer as Britain's PM by July 20

• Burnham is due to outline his vision for Britain this morning (BST)

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Theta Gold Mines' shares fall as much as 7.1% to A$0.195, lowest since May 22

• TGM raises $18.6 million through a share placement

• Issue price of A$0.18/shr represents a discount of 14.3% to stock's last close

• Proceeds will be used to complete plant construction of TGME Gold Mine Project and for first gold production in 2027

• About 732,000 shares changed hands, 2.6 times the 30-day avg - LSEG data

• TGM up ~14% YTD, including the session's moves

(Reporting by Anjali Singh in Bengaluru)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/15:00 GMT on Monday June 29

• EUR/USD: 1.1350 (293M), 1.1385 (874M), 1.1400 (1.7BLN), 1.1450 (1.3BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8020-30 (448M), 0.8100 (190M), 0.8120 (405M).

EUR/CHF: 0.9250 (201M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8650-60 (300M). GBP/USD: 1.3220 (235M), 1.3285-1.3300 (275M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6845-50 (388M). NZD/USD: 0.5610-15 (333M).

AUD/NZD: 1.2250 (551M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4055 (508M), 1.4210 (295M), 1.4300 (401M)

• USD/JPY: 161.00 (624M), 161.50 (2.4BLN), 161.75 (660M), 162.00 (1BLN), 163.00 (1.8BLN)

• FX options wrap - Calm before the NFP storm (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD traded on heavy side in Asia, 1.1380-93 EBS, Friday 1.1355-1.1434

• Rally Friday effectively reversed but little in way of direction in Asia

• Above 1.1356-63 hourly Ichimoku cloud, between 1.1376/1.1432 100/200-HMAs

• Option expiries again a factor, downside strikes supportive, heavy up top

• Below today between 1.1300-60 total E1.3 bln, above 1.1385-1.1450 E4.4 bln

• EUR/JPY up from 183.18 low last Wednesday but still below daily Ichi cloud

• Cloud today 184.72-95, Asia range so far 184.17-27

• Hourly cloud 183.69-95, 100 and 200-HMA at 184.16 and 184.81, respectively

• EUR/CHF 0.9222-23 EBS, holding around descending 200-DMA at 0.9224

• Some option expiries in area today but nothing very large

• EUR/GBP in rally mode Friday, 0.8611 to 0.8651 then, today to 0.8685

• Off since however to 0.8628, on volatile side

• Resistance from area of 0.8674-78 daily Ichimoku cloud, 200-DMA 0.8700

• Related comments , , also
EUR/USD hourly:


EUR/USD nearby option expiries this week:


EUR/GBP daily:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Greatland Resources rise as much as 7.2% to A$12.995, their highest level since June 24

• Stock logs its largest intraday pct gain since June 15

• The diversified miner says its group ore reserves contain more gold than expected, lifts estimate by 62% to 5 million ounces, as at March 31

• Miner's portfolio includes the Telfer-Haverion gold copper complex in Western Australia

• Stock up 15.7% YTD, including the day's moves

(Reporting by Nikita Maria Jino in Bengaluru)

• USD remains bid on re-flaring of Middle East tensions though oil prices off

• USD/JPY remains on hold just below 162.00, Asia so far today 161.71-89 EBS

• Japanese FX intervention conspicuous in its absence, offers still pre-162

• Option barriers at 162.00 still seen in jeopardy, defensive sales ahead

• Japanese exporter offers likely mixed in, spec profit-taking too?

• Dips bought however, demand remain strong - Japanese importers, retail

• Also hedging flows on foreign investor Japanese stock purchases

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials down from recent highs, 2s to @268 bps

• Differential in 10s near trend lows @177 bps

• Vanilla option expiries today total $3.4 bln between 161.00-50, supportive

• $1.7 bln between 161.75-162 too, will likely help cap upside

• Related comments , , ,

• Also

• US markets , , ,

• Oil early Asia , on Middle East ,
USD/JPY:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries this week:


Nikkei 225:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian gold stocks rise as much as 2.8%, their biggest intraday pct gain since June 17

• Gold prices rose on Friday as the dollar weakened and expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes eased slightly following inflation data [GOL]

• Evolution Mining gains over 2% and Northern Star Resources adds 0.8%

• Gold miners down over 14%, YTD

(Reporting by Shruti Agarwal in Bengaluru)

• NZD/USD flat early Mon as traders attempt to decipher Iran war status

• Impact of RBNZ's hawkish rhetoric fading badly, NZD -3.5% mtd in Jun

• Futures pricing implies probability of Jul RBNZ hike has moderated to 62.4%

• U.S. & Iran exchanged fire and threatened escalation over the weekend

• Axios reporting both sides have agreed to stop strikes and meet in Qatar Tue

• NZD under extreme pressure since failing to break above 55-DMA on Jul 15

• Range NZ 0.56385-405, support 5580, resistance 0.5990-95 0.6012 0.6093
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.1% early Mon as U.S. & Iran exchange fire and threaten escalation

• Axios reports both sides have agreed to stop strikes and meet in Qatar Tue

• Both sides levelling accusations of breaches to interim peace deal

• AUD likely to target 0.6834 support, break below will enliven bears

• RBA Assistant Governor Kent speaking in Sydney early Mon

• RBA Jul monetary policy meeting minutes due for release Tue

• Range Asia 0.6885-96, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7089 0.7200
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD net G10 IMM long grew by $4.97bn in Jun 17-23 reporting period; $IDX +0.68%

• Since the period close, UK political vista more settled, Fed on more dovish policy view

• EUR$ -0.76% in period; specs -4.2k contracts now +3.2k; dovish ECB stirred selling

• $JPY +0.28%; specs +4k contracts now -146.1k; spec traders wary of MOF near 162

• GBP$ -0.68%; specs -31.1k contracts now -105.7k; political, fiscal uncertainty weighed

• $CAD +0.79%; specs -13.9k contracts now -146.8k; Fed-BoC divergence weighed on CAD

• AUD$ -2.15%; specs -8.9k contracts now -13k; converging Fed/RBA policy outlooks stirs AUD unwind

IMM Position Table:


Majors w/IMM Performance Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

The euro rose against a mixed dollar on Friday, supported by profit-taking, month-end flows and lower U.S. yields as softer oil tempered Fed tightening expectations. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank may need to raise rates as inflation remains broad-based, reiterating inflation concerns expressed by New York Fed President John Williams on Thursday. U.S. data showed the goods trade deficit widened sharply to a 14-month high in May, while consumer sentiment rebounded in June but remained weighed by cost-of-living concerns.

The European Central Bank Sintra forum kicks off Monday with panels featuring top central bankers, including the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed stressed the need to protect Hormuz shipping lanes in a call with Iran’s Abbas Araqchi, as Tehran reasserted its right to control and warned Gulf states against backing the U.S. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened a 100% tariff on goods from countries imposing digital taxes on U.S. firms and said Iran foolishly fired drones at ships in Hormuz. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon after talks in Washington.

Dollar direction was also shaped by quarter-end and monthly rebalancing, with corporate and fix demand providing support. EUR/USD rose on short-covering and stronger risk assets though a long upper wick and falling monthly RSI temper the bullish daily signals. GBP/USD edged up above 1.32, aided by lower U.S. yields and easing UK fiscal risks, though upside is capped by technical resistance. USD/JPY traded in a tight range below 162, signaling potential bull exhaustion, with upside capped by intervention risk and July yen seasonality turning supportive after next week’s Q2 Tankan. AUD/USD slipped, weighed down by lower oil, softer CNH and month-end adjustments, leaving a bearish technicals in place as it nears its 0.6858 200-DMA.

Treasury yields were down as much as 3 basis points as the curve steepened. The 2s-10s curve was up about 2 basis points to +28.2bp.

The S&P 500 eased 0.10% in a choppy market.

WTI oil fell 3.8%, nearly filling an outstanding early-March price gap below $70/bbl.

Gold rose 1.08% while copper gained 0.79%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.16%, USD/JPY -0.04%, GBP/USD +0.08%, AUD/USD -0.20%, DXY -0.09%, EUR/JPY +0.11%, GBP/JPY -0.01%, AUD/JPY -0.26%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6900 after 0.6875 traded overnight, the pair slid early

• 0.6895 was neared, buyers emerged as USD, US yields

sank

• Gold, silver and copper rallied as did equities while USD/CNH fell

• AUD/USD hit 0.6917 then pulled back, the pair sat just above 0.6900 late

• The pair was trading down only -0.14% in NY's afternoon

• A daily bull hammer candle formed, daily RSI didn't confirm today's low

• Falling monthly RSI & AUD/USD's hold below the 10- & 21-DMAs are bearish
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research highlights 2 key scenarios for EUR/USD into year-end.

"We see two main scenarios for EUR/USD over the remainder of the year. In our base case, where the Fed does not follow through with rate hikes, we expect EUR/USD to move back up into the 1.1400–1.1800 range that has prevailed over the past year," MUFG notes.

"Alternatively, if the Fed delivers multiple rate hikes, EUR/USD could fall further below 1.1000. Evidence of slowing US inflation and/or a less hawkish Fed reaction function would support a weaker USD, and vice versa in the months ahead..

Looking ahead, next week’s ECB annual policy forum in Sintra should provide further insight into the extent to which monetary policy paths in Europe and the US are likely to diverge," MUFG adds.

Sterling's near-term prospects appear cautiously positive as falling UK gilt and U.S. Treasury yields along with a stabilizing UK political and fiscal environment following Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation combine to provide a modest lift to GBP/USD.

This nascent sterling bid is further reinforced by GBP/USD IMM net speculative short-covering, with traders unwinding recent sterling shorts that had surged to three-month highs amid mounting UK political and fiscal uncertainties. As sentiment shifts toward consolidation, that short-covering activity is providing additional support to sterling demand. With UK and U.S. monetary policy outlooks converging toward similar trajectories in 2026–2027, sterling has re-entered its daily Bollinger envelope spanning 1.3190–1.3552, signaling a return to equilibrium following its recent correction. There are also signs that some investors, at least, may be expecting a less hawkish Federal Reserve outlook for 2026 than others have feared.

Assuming geopolitical and domestic political stasis, bulls are likely to target the June 22 high at 1.3272 as the first line of resistance. A sustained close above the falling 10-day moving average at 1.3279 could open the way for further tests of short-term moving average resistance on the path toward the 200-day moving average and the daily cloud base situated just above 1.34. Movement beyond that level would likely require additional macro catalysts confirming the policy-convergence narrative.
GBP$ Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

 Bank of America Global Research revises its JPY medium-term view from bearish to neutral and targets USD/JPY at 156 in Q3 and 152 by year-end

"We had been structurally bearish on JPY since 2021, and since 2022 had premised our outlook on a prolonged period of JPY weakness driven by structural outflows. However, there are now signs of an improvement in structural flow dynamics. Moreover, other major currencies face their own risk factors. As a result, the medium-term outlook for JPY has improved," BofA notes.

"We are no longer bearish JPY as structural outflows moderate and hedging trends begin to shift...While USD/JPY can remain elevated near term, we prefer expressing the view through short CHF/JPY as Japanese flow dynamics gradually improve. An improving demand-supply balance for yen is the medium-term thesis but Japan's policy mix is key too. In our view, we are sufficiently close to pain thresholds in USD/JPY and JGB yields for Japan policymakers to pivot toward a more prudent fiscal/monetary stance. Apart from the BoJ continuing to hike, a key fiscal litmus test will be Japan's "Basic Policy" framework," BofA adds.