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Jun 25 - 05:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Longs Will Need A Lot More Patience

By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jun 25 - 04:09 AM

With currency markets growing quieter by the day EUR/USD traders who have been betting on a rise for fifteen months may need to hold their nerve for much longer if they are to make a bigger profit. nL2N2O70DL

Volatility briefly spiked when traders pared some bets after a surprisingly hawkish Federal Reserve meeting but vols have sunk since and EUR/USD has bounced.
Traders who upped bets ahead the Fed meeting are doubtless still sitting on a large long position and witnessing a slowdown and a lower EUR/USD.

Many bets were influenced by techs which remain bullish.
Corrections have been shallow, and while that remains the case there is good reason to expect traders to retain a core long position.

The target for a minimum correction of the rise from the March 2020 low is 1.1695, the biggest pullback possible without breaking the trend is 1.1040.

With vols fairly close now to the record low traded in 2019 more profit taking is likely to weigh.



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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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