June 3 (Reuters) - FX traders should note that EUR/USD usually closes in positive territory in June and this will likely be the case again in 2025.
A study of the EUR/USD's performance for each June since 2000 shows it has risen in 15 of the last 25 years, highlighting a seemingly inbuilt structural strength. Seasonality should not be considered in isolation, but it's a useful tool combined with other factors.
EUR/USD has backed away from Tuesday's 1.1454 six-week high. Later in the week, the focus will be on the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and subsequent outlook. However, solid technical support should keep the bullish cycle intact.
EUR/USD's downside has been limited by the thick rising cloud that currently
spans the 1.0966-1.1297 region. The overall bias is on the upside. The scope is
growing for eventual gains to test the 2025 1.1572 high. Fourteen-day momentum
remains positive, highlighting the bullish bias through June. The chance recedes
of a drop to the 1.1019 level, a 38.2% retrace of the 2025 rise registered on
EBS to 1.1572 from 1.0125. Related comment
Seasonality Chart
Daily Chart:
(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
