CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's Canada's Q3 GDP report.
"Canada had a mediocre third quarter, with some troubling details for what lies ahead, as business investment spending fell and the quarter ended with a decline in September. The 2.0% growth rate for Q3 matched expectations, and is only marginally above what the Bank of Canada sees as sustainable without inflation pressures. But business investment spending on plant and equipment, which the Bank hopes will be a growth leader, fell at a 7% pace, albeit coming down from big gains back in Q1. With a sluggish gain for consumption, and housing also negative, final domestic demand edged down 0.1% annualized in the quarter. GDP posted a -0.1% result for September on declines in the goods sector, after only a 0.1% gain the prior month, a poor handoff for Q4," CIBC notes.
"These aren't the sort of numbers that back a rate hike in December, and we'll need to see much better results for October, and at least a hint of good news on oil, to support our call for a January hike. Risks are growing towards pushing that next hike further into 2019," CIBC argues.