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Apr 08 - 06:55 PM

Bank of America: We Forecast a 0.9% m/m Increase in March Headline CPI Owing to the Jump in Energy Prices

By eFXdata  —  Apr 08 - 04:00 PM

Bank of America Global Research previews the US March CPI report on Friday.

"CPI inflation likely jumped due to energy in March. The March CPI report should show the initial effects of the Iran war. We forecast a 0.9 % m/m (0.91% unrounded) increase in headline CPI owing to a 10.6% m/m jump in energy prices. Core CPI, meanwhile, should be softer at 0.3% m/m (0.26% unrounded). The headline NSA index should print at 330.762. Market and our attention would be focused on the implications for PCE inflation after very strong core PCE prints in recent months," BofA notes.

"Core CPI details. While our forecast for core CPI is cooler than headline CPI, it still implies a 3.1% annualized rate, above levels typically consistent with 2% core PCE. In terms of the details, we expect a 1% m/m pop in used cars to contribute to a 0.23% m/m increase for core goods. Core services likely rose by 0.28% m/m. Shelter should remain relatively sanguine due to cooler rent inflation. However, non-housing services' inflation, likely picked up slightly on the month," BofA adds.

Source:
BofA Global Research

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