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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jan 17 - 09:35 AM
  • Back to back failures above the 200DMA stalling the up-trend

  • A new 1.3639 pullback low but price has now bounced

  • A bearish engulfing candle Friday also warns of a potential reversal

  • The candle signal can be strong but needs Monday confirmation

  • Minimum correction off the 1.3162-1.3749 climb is at 1.3610

  • Trend resumption the risk but need to clear 1.3736 200DMA to trigger

  • We have an offer at 1.3790; will revise strategy on a bear close

    For more click on FXBUZ
















GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jan 17 - 07:35 AM
  • EUR/USD 21-WMA at 1.1499 has just crossed below 200-WMA at 1.1513

  • After last similar move in Apr 2019 EUR/USD dropped 6% to 2020 low

  • EUR/USD 1.1040 is 76.4% of subsequent rise to 2021's peak at 1.2349

  • 1.1040 is the gateway to 2020 low, at risk to latest 21/200-WMA signal

  • EUR/USD traders horribly positioned for expected rate moves nL1N2TX0LK




EURUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jan 17 - 05:45 AM

U.S and euro zone interest rates are widely expected to diverge yet EUR/USD traders have decided now is the time to bet on a rise.
That leaves them badly positioned for expected changes in U.S. interest rates, just as other currency traders are betting heavily on a stronger dollar.

Betting against the trend usually hurts.
And if EUR/USD traders are wrong, their error could lead to a deeper and perhaps much more abrupt drop. nL1N2TX0EL

EUR/USD dropped 1.2135-1.1186 after June's Federal Reserve meeting brought hints of a change in U.S. monetary policy.
Expectations have quickly evolved from a taper to possible hikes, and then to the number of hikes, which could see a 150 bps gap in rates materialize this year.

If that is factored in, EUR/USD will come under great pressure, likely dropping below 1.10 and forcing traders to position for 1.0500-1.0300 targets.


For more click on FXBUZ


EUR/USD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jan 17 - 05:35 AM
  • AUD/USD has traded a 22 pip range since 0600 GMT, 0.7201-0.7223

  • The peak of that range is a pip shy of the early Asian session high

  • 0.7196 was Asian session base, lowest level since Jan 11 nL1N2TX06Q

  • IMM net AUD short position rose to new all-time high in week ended Jan 11

  • 103,869 gross AUD short contracts vs 12,383 gross AUD longs nL1N2TU2DV

  • 0.7314 was eight-week high for AUD/USD on Jan 13, after shorts squeezed

AUDUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jan 17 - 03:40 AM
  • Those that are bullish need to force a break above the 114.58 Fibo

  • 114.58 Fibo: 38.2% retrace of the 116.35 to 113.48 (January) drop

  • Found support at 113.48 on Friday, just ahead of the 113.44 Fibo

  • 113.44 Fibo: 76.4% retrace of the 112.54 to 116.35 (Nov to Jan) EBS rise

  • Cloud, spans 113.17-64 region, stemmed the drop from Jan 116.35 peak

  • Fri's candle has a long tail, signaling attempts to reject the downside

  • USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. EUR/JPY sees a 130.36-79 range on Monday

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jan 17 - 03:00 AM

Amends against to backing 2nd line

  • EUR/USD traders have established a small long position IMM/FX

  • 900 million they bet against USD compares 19 billon backing it

  • EUR/USD's small bounce in 2022 likely a selling opportunity

  • EUR/USD has dropped 7.8% since June Fed, rally is minor correction

  • Big drops followed peaks in Sep and Oct, another similar move is likely

  • There are no shorts to squeeze and no oversold situation to correct

  • Trend down, rates to diverge favour a decline, risk appetite robust

  • EUR as a negative yield funding currency likely to be hard pressed this year


EURUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jan 17 - 02:05 AM
  • Scope for bigger gains to 1.1599 Fibo, despite a bull trap above 1.1441 Fibo

  • Bull trap set when a market breaks above a tech level but then reverses

  • 1.1441/1.1599 Fibos, 23.6%/38.2% of 1.2266 to 1.1186 (May to Nov) EBS fall

  • Daily cloud, that now spans wide 1.1346-1.1439 region, should limit downside

  • We are long at 1.1405, for gains to our 1.1520 target, our stop is at 1.1345

  • Previous EUR/USD update nL1N2TU0N5. EUR/USD Trader TGM2334

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jan 17 - 02:00 AM
  • Back to back failures above the 200DMA stalling the up-trend

  • A bearish engulfing candle Friday also warns of a potential reversal

  • The candle signal can be strong but needs Monday confirmation

  • Early indication suggest price might not even make a minimum correction

  • A 23.6% Fibo off the 1.3162-1.3749 climb is at 1.3610

  • Trend resumption the risk but need to clear 1.3736 200DMA

  • We have an offer at 1.3790; will revise strategy on a bear close

    For more click on FXBUZ














GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 16 - 10:20 PM
  • AUD/USD opened 0.7215 after falling 0.87% Friday when US yields and USD rose nL1N2TU1JWnL1N2TU2AN

  • AUD/USD came under pressure early Asia and fell to 0.7196 at one stage

  • USD was broadly bid in Asia first up and moved higher across the board

  • China Q4 GDP came in better than expected while retail sales and IP were mixed nB9N2TE01OnB9N2TE01P

  • AUD/USD steadied and is trading around 0.7205/10 into the afternoon

  • Resistance is at 0.7215/20 where the 10 & 21-day MAs converge

  • A break above 0.7220 would ease the downward pressure

  • Bids are tipped ahead of 0.7190 with support at Jan 7 low at 0.7130

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 16 - 10:10 PM
  • EUR/USD opened 1.1425 after closing down 0.33% on Friday when USD bounced nL1N2TU2AN

  • The opening price was the high and EUR/USD eased to 1.1400

  • USD moved higehr across the board early, but EUR/USD bids around 1.1400 held

  • Heading into the afternoon it is unchanged at 1.1416

  • EUR/USD trending higher with the 5, 10 and 21-day MAs in a bullish alignment

  • Support is at the 10-day MA at 1.1368 and break would suggest top is forming

  • Strong resistance around 1.1500 where 61.8 fibo and 100-day MA converge

  • Key will moves in US yields ahead of Jan 26 FOMC

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 16 - 09:20 PM
  • China Q4 GDP better than expected - while activity data mixed

  • China Dec IP was better than forecasts, but retail sales was worse nB9N2TE01OnB9N2TE01O

  • AUD/USD remains under pressure and is trading around Friday's 0.7198 low

  • AXJ equity index -0.40% wile E-minis are -0.20% after being up earlier

  • USD bid across the board, as higher US yields underpin USD sentiment for now

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 16 - 08:40 PM
  • AUD/USD moving lower as USD pushed higher across the board

  • It is trading close to Friday's 0.7198 low

  • A break below 0.7195 targets the Jan 7 low at 0.7130

  • The 10 & 21-day MAs converge at 0.7215/20 and is now resistance

  • A move back above 0.7220 is needed to relieve downward pressure

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jan 16 - 07:10 PM

  • Flat, after closing off 0.35% Friday, as the USD bounced with UST yields

  • UST yield bounce fuelled by barrage of hawkish Fed comments nL1N2TU228

  • EZ-US yield differentials key for EUR/USD direction this week nL8N2TU3W2

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21 day moving averages, 21 day Bollinger bands rise

  • Neutral studies climb - last week's topside break leaves a positive setup

  • Initially targets a test of 1.1498, 61.8% October-November fall

  • Close below 1.1386 prior range high would undermine the topside bias

  • NY 1.1398 low and lat Asian 1.1483 high Friday initial support, resistance

For more click on FXBUZ


eur jan 17 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 16 - 06:00 PM
  • EUR/USD eased 0.33% on Friday when US yields surged despite weak US data nL1N2TU2ANnL1N2TU1JW

  • Resistance around 1.1500 may prove difficult as sellers eyed around 1.1485

  • The 61.8 of 1.1692/1.1086 is at 1.1498 and the 100-day MA is at 1.1502

  • EUR/USD trending higher with the 5, 10 & 21-day MAs in bullish alignment

  • Support is at the 10-day MA at 1.1369 and break would warn top is forming

  • Bids are tipped at 1.1385/90, which was former support

  • Key in short-term will be moves in US yields as Fed expectations remain hawkish

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 16 - 05:10 PM
  • AUD/USD fell 0.87% on Friday and was the worst performing major currency

  • USD broadly supported by higher US yields despite weaker than expected US data nL1N2TU25P

  • AUD/JPY selling in risk-off market added extra weight to AUD/USD

  • AUD/USD hovering around the 10 & 21-day MA, which converge 0.7215/20

  • Support is at Friday's 0.7198 low and break targets 0.7130

  • Resistance is at Thursday's 0.7314 high and 61.8 fibo at 0.7341

  • China GDP, retail sales and IP out today and could influence sentiment

  • AUD/JPY flows out of Tokyo after Friday's fall key to intraday direction

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jan 14 - 04:12 PM

Repeat with no changes

  • IMM net spec $ long grew in Jan 5-11 period on large JPY salesnL1N2TU2CN

  • EUR -0.74% in period, position flips to sml long, specs +7,559 contracts

  • $JPY fell 0.73% in period, spec sell 25,263 contracts now -87,525

  • GBP rose 0.82% in period, specs +10,005 contracts into strength, now -29,166

  • $CAD -1.05%, specs +3,649 now -7,376; AUD -0.35% in period specs -2,120

  • BTC -7.66% in period specs bottom-fishing +227 contract near 2022 low, short reduced to 377 contracts

IMM Position Table: Click here

Majors w/IMM Performance Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 14 - 01:40 PM
  • EUR/USD falls in Europe's am, NY opens near 1.1455, slide extends

  • Downside US data surprises nL1N2TU18HnAQN0AXT0P soften US$, rates

  • Small post-data EUR/USD lift gets sold however as US$, rates weakness fades

  • Eurodollar prices EDH2 drop, US 2-yr yield US2YT=RR hits a 23-mo high

  • US$ erases overnight losses, turns positive, EUR/USD hits 1.13985 on EBS

  • Pair's drop aided by equity ESv1 fall, EUR/JPY drop to 129.785 on EBS

  • Daily bear engulfing candle, falling daily RSI gives techs a bear lean

  • US rates reaction to data sends warning to EUR/USD longs nL1N2TU1LF

  • For more click on FXBUZ


eurusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 14 - 01:30 PM
Societe Generale Research likes short GBP/USD in the near-term.
 
"We don’t expect an ECB hike this year and think the market is ahead of itself, but while that leaves us trying to work out where to take a stand against the euro’s bounce, maybe the nest hedge against ECB hike enthusiasm is to buy EUR/GBP. November’s GDP data may be as good as it gets here, and even if the current political chaos isn’t market-relevant, sterling is overbought," SocGen notes. 
 
"GBP/USD is too, but shorting it us just a better way to short EUR/USD and we can’t rule out a bit more overshoot to the upside before that turns," SocGen adds. 
 
Source:
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
Jan 14 - 01:55 PM

AUD/USD - Longs Face Troubling Signs

By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 14 - 12:25 PM
  • AUD/USD's rally off the Jan 7 low stalled Thursday at 0.7314

  • Rally stalled short of 61.8% Fib of 0.7555-0.6994, rising channel top

  • Gravestone doji formed Thursday, is followed by a drop on Friday

  • Pair falls below daily cloud top, 50% Fib 0.7555-0.6994 and 55-DMA

  • Daily and monthly RSIs are falling, imply downside momentum building

  • Should drop extend below channel base, cloud base deeper fall likely

  • For more click on FXBUZ





audusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 14 - 10:45 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses EUR/USD technical outlook and sees a scope for a tactical long into dips around 1.1380.

"A six-week consolidation formed an ascending triangle bottom pattern. These patterns tend to be bullish in uptrends because the bottom of the triangle is rising (ascending). By rising it represented accumulation at higher lows. The market’s reaction to US CPI data caused euro to rally and confirm the bottom pattern and tactical upside. Trend line resistance was also broken," BofA notes. 

"The next pivot zone is at 1.15-1.1530 and the 200d SMA at 1.1730. Traders may try to buy a pullback to 1.1380. The bottom pattern remains while above the rising black trend line now at 1.1280. Should euro break below this, it will appear bearish, again," BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Rob Howard  —  Jan 14 - 09:50 AM
  • Cable drops to 1.3686 (two-day low) courtesy of a decline in risk appetite

  • U.S. stocks extend fall after opening lower nL4N2TU3HAnAQN0AXSPL

  • Sterling is a risk-sensitive currency, while the dollar is a safer-haven

  • Safe-haven franc rises to one-week high versus euro nL1N2TU1CC

  • U.S. manufacturing output unexpectedly falls in December nL1N2TT245

  • 1.3749 was 11-week high for GBP/USD Thursday, after short positions squeezed


GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 14 - 09:30 AM

ANZ Research discusses the USD outlook and notes that the bulk of Fed hawkish tilt has now been priced in by the markets.

"The US dollar has started the year in a curious fashion. On the surface, it looks like all the elements for further strength were in place: a hotter than anticipated CPI, a raft of Fed members amplifying hawkish rhetoric and the first sub 4% unemployment print since the beginning of the pandemic. So hitting a two-month low shortly after the strongest headline inflation print since 1982 caught many by surprise," ANZ notes. 

"The best explanation is that the hawkish Fed tilt, which commenced in earnest at the November FOMC meeting has largely been factored into market expectations and positioning. With market pricing and Fed rhetoric coalescing around four full rate hikes for 2022, the bulk of the Fed adjustment story could well be in the price now," ANZ adds. 

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 14 - 09:05 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research sees limited scope for further GBP gains in the near-term.

"Investors have been frontloading rate hike expectations ahead of the February BoE meeting but have not priced in a more aggressive tightening this year. As a result, our short-term FX fair value models, based on rate and box yield spreads, suggest that the GBP is looking expensive vs the EUR and USD," CACIB notes. 

"Moreover, we expect only two rate hikes this year and doubt that the MPC will be able to meet market expectations of four rate hikes this year," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 14 - 07:20 AM
  • Gravestone doji formed Thursday, was a warning for AUD/USD longs

  • Pair falls below the daily cloud top, 50% Fib of 0.6994-0.7555 today

  • AUD/USD drop aided by yen buys driving AUD/JPY down toward 82.60

  • Copper HGv1, iron-ore DCIOc2 falls, US yield US2YT=RR gains add weight

  • USD/CNH bounce near flat after hitting 6.3424 also helps weigh down AUD/USD

  • Pair hits 0.7259 early NY; RSIs turn down, implies bear momentum in place

  • US Dec retail sales, export/import prices, ind. prod. data risks loom

  • For more click on FXBUZ

audusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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